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Monday, November 29, 2010

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 29/11/2010 / 综合指数 2010年11月29日

FBM KLCI 29 November 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI had an early loss on Monday, reaching its daily low or 1487.17. However, the KLCI picked up some strength, and even closed with a gain of 3.90 points at 1495.95 points. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1500 while the support is still at 1487 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 23%, and this shows that the KLCI is consolidating; however, immediate technical outlook for the KLCI remains weak, as it is still below the Bollinger Middle Band.
As indicated by B, total market volume fell 23%, and it is now below the 40-day volume moving average. This shows that the market is generally in-active, or it implies that the sentiment is weakening. Generally, when volume is low, the KLCI is likely to consolidate.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks above 50%, as the short term movement of the KLCI picks up a little strength. Technically, the Stochastic has to break above 70% in order to signal a short term bullish movement for the KLCI.

Immediate technical outlook for the KLCI remains weak as it is still testing 1500 and also resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA. But it is still too soon to call for a valid downtrend for the KLCI.

综合指数 2010年 11月 29日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指数一度下滑,并且跌破1487.17点的费氏线线,惟综指随后回弹,并且重新获得1487点的扶持,综指最终上扬3.90点或0.26%,以1495.95点闭市。综指目前仍然受到1500点心理水平的阻力,支持水平则仍然维持在1487点的费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)收窄23%,这显示综指持续的处于一个调整巩固的格局中,由于布林中频带目前处于1500点的阻力水平,所以综指未能突破此重叠的阻力,无论如何,接下来若综指能成功的上扬突破布林中频带,综指将有望形成转强的格局,反之若综指继续受制于布林中频带的阻力,综指的后市则有进一步转弱的风险。

图中箭头B所示,马股成交量处于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以下的水平,这显示综指在布林频带收窄时,出现淡静的格局,这通常发生在综指横摆巩固时。
如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)上扬突破50%的水平,这显示综指的短期走势从弱势中恢复至中和的水平,接下来若随机指标继续上扬,并且突破70%的水平,综指的短期走势将有望重新进入短期上扬的格局。

虽然综指回弹,惟综指仍然受到1500点心理阻力、布林中频带以及31天加权移动平均线(EMA)的阻力,所以综指上扬突破这些水平可说是困难重重。接下来若外围因素开始转好,再加上综指突破上述提到的阻力线,综指才有望成功摆脱跌势,恢复上扬的趋势。

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