Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年11月18日/FBMKLCI 18/11/2010

综合指数 2010年 11月 18日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数下跌6.89点或0.46%，以1596.65点闭市，综指跌破了1500点的心理支持关口，惟综指再度精确的在1487.17点的费氏线获得扶持而回弹，这是综指当前的支持线，综指当前的阻力水平则是1500点及1532点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开11%，而综指已处于布林中频带以下了，所以综指开始有转弱的迹象，接下来若布林频带继续打开，而综指又持续处于布林中频带以下，那综指将形成一个跌势，直到布林频带打开的幅度减少为止。

图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量减少15.20%，所以成交量跌破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示综指在有转弱迹象的当儿，投资者开始选择离场观望，静待观察综指进一步的演变。通常若成交量减少，综指将倾向于调整或横摆巩固。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）再度跌破30%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势开始转弱，换句话说，若随机指标短期内未能回弹上扬突破30%的水平，综指的短期走势将形成一个下跌的趋势。

总的来说，布林频带稍微打开显示综指有转弱的迹象，这也可从随机指标跌破30%看出，所以接下来若布林频带进一步打开，而随机指标则维持在30%以下，综指将会形成一个下跌的趋势。换句话说，接下来综指必须立即回弹，随机指标也应反弹至30%以上，再加上布林频带稍微，那综指才有望避开进入下跌的趋势。

FBM KLCI 18 November 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI fell 6.89 points or 0.46% on Thursday, to close at 1496.65 points, breaking below the 1500 level by margin, but it managed to stay above the 1487.17 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, which is the support for the KLCI, while the resistance is at 1500 followed by 1532.

As shown on the chart on the left, the Bollinger Bands expanded 11%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, thus immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is slightly negative. If the KLCI should continue to expand while the KLCI stays below the Bollinger Middle Band, more downside movement is expected for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 15.2%, with volume below the 40-day volume moving average. This shows that the market participation has reduced, and it is a sign of lack of confidence as investors stay on the sidelines.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks below 30%, entering the short term bearish region, and if the Stochastic should stay below 30%, the market movement for the short term is likely to stay bearish bias.

In conclusion, immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is slightly on the negative side, but the KLCI has not formed a downtrend yet, for the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still supporting the KLCI.

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