Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年11月02日/FBM KLCI 02/11/2010

综合指数 2010年 11月 02日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数下滑3.09点，以1506.57点闭市，综指基本上呈调整巩固的格局，所以阻力水平依然保持在1525点的费氏线，支持水平亦维持在1500点的心理支持水平。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄9%，这显示综指上扬的趋势遇阻，开始出现调整，一般上布林中频带将成为综指当前调整的第一个目标，布林中频带也同时是综指的动态支持线，所以综指有望在此获得扶持。

图中箭头B所示，马股的交易量进一步减少5.6%，惟成交量仍然成功的保持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这显示马股整体的交投活跃，这是市场仍然有一定承接力量的表现。接下来若成交量能继续保持在40天平均值以上，综指将有望在获得足够扶持下继续保持转强的格局。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）缓缓下滑，不过随机指标目前仍然处于70%以上，这表示综指的短期走势开始出现调整的格局，惟只要随机指标能继续保持在70%以上，综指的短期走势仍然是属于短期强势中，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，由于布林频带开始收窄，所以综指出现了调整巩固的走势。无论如何，由于成交量并未跌破40天的平均值，综指也保持在14、21、31天的加权移动平均线（EMA）以上，再加上随机指标目前高于70%的水平，所以综指短期的走势仍然属于偏强的格局中，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

FBM KLCI 02 Nov 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI fell 3.09 points to close at 1506.57 points. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1525 while the support is at 1500. As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 9%, suggesting that the KLCI is not picking up strength as its volatility is still low. Nevertheless, provided that the KLCI could stay above the Bollinger Middle Band, immediate technical outlook shall remain positive.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 5.6%, but volume stays above the 40-day volume moving average. This indicates that the overall market is still well-participated, thus the market sentiment as a whole is still positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic retreated gradually, but still staying above 70%, in the short term bullish region. Therefore, the Stochastic is still suggesting a short term bullish signal for the KLCI.

In short, the KLCI is taking a pause before testing the 1525 all time high resistance. Generally, technical reading of the KLCI chart is still positive, with the 14, 21, 31 EMA long term dynamic support still intact, the uptrend of the KLCI is well in place.

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