Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年11月15日/FBMKLCI 15/11/2010

综合指数 2010年 11月 15日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数全日以窄幅波动，按日微扬1.75点，以1501.56点闭市，重新回到1500点以上，所以1500暂时成为了综指的支持水平，阻力水平则分别是1525点及1532点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄3%，这显示综指目前正处于一个调整的格局，一般上若布林频带继续收窄，综指将继续横摆巩固，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量锐减36.98%，这使到成交量跌破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这表示马股整体的走势在综指调整的当儿有步入淡静的迹象，接下来若成交量继续处于40天平均值以下，那综指在失去买盘的扶持下，进入横摆巩固或继续下调的格局。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在30%的水平回弹，这使到综指避开确认形成跌势，所以接下来若随机指标能继续的上扬，那综指的短期走势将有望成功的避开进入下跌的趋势。

总的来说，综指在1487点的费氏线获得扶持后，周一再度走强，虽然幅度有限，不过综指仍然成功的返回1500点水平以上，接下来若综指继续上扬，并且突破布林中频带的动态阻力线，综指转强的机会将有望提高。

FBM KLCI 15 November 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI was traded in a narrow range on Monday, gaining 1.75 points to close at 1501.56 points. Since the KLCI managed to stay above 1500 mark, the 1500 is now the immediate support for the KLCI while the 1525 to 1532 is the resistance.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 3%, and this suggests that the KLCI is still consolidating, and the consolidation is expected to carry on until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 36.98 %, with volume below the 40-day volume moving average. Usually, when the market is consolidating or when the direction is uncertain, trading volume will generally decline. But if volume should continue to stay low, the KLCI is less likely to pick up its strength.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded at 30%, and this means that the Stochastic does not trigger a short term bearish signal, and the short term movement for the KLCI is now still neutral.

In conclusion, the KLCI rebounded on Monday, and returned to above 1500 level, and with the Bollinger Bands contracting, the KLCI is expected to consolidate from here, and the consolidation shall carry on until the Bollinger Bands should re-expand.

HAPPY TRADING