Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年11月24日/FBMKLCI 24/11/2010

综合指数 2010年 11月 24日
由于受到外围因素的影响，马股早盘出现投资者惊慌抛售的情形，使到富时综合指数开低，出现缺口（Gap）。如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数一度跌破1487点的费氏线，惟综指随后回弹，回补开市缺口，综指当前的支持水平继续是1487点及1459点的费氏线，阻力水平则维持在1500点的心理阻力关口。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）一度打开，惟综指在布林下频带上获的扶持而回弹，无论如何，由于综指目前仍然处于布林中频带以下，所以接下来若布林频带进一步的打开，那综指将有继续下跌的风险，直到综指上扬突破布林中频带为止。

图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少9.40%，这使到成交量仍然低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这是市场在出现调整时，有步入淡静或转弱格局的现象。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在跌至0%的超卖水平后回弹，这也使到综指稍微回弹，不过由于随机指标仍然低于30%的水平，所以综指的短期走势仍然算是一个下跌的格局，直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。

综指目前已跌破了14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA），所以综指的中期走势有转弱的风险，一般上若综指未能短期内重返EMA以上，那在综指形成了另一个较低的顶（Lower-High）后，综指的后市将会被确认形成跌势。

综指在创新高后出现套利，再加上外围因素的负面影响，综指有倾向出现转弱的现象，无论如何，接下来若综指迅速回弹，并且重新回到EMA及布林中频带以上，综指还是有望避开这一轮转弱的窘境。

FBM KLCI 24 Nov 2010
Due to the over-night losses of the US Markets, the KLCI opened gap down on Wednesday, but it managed to recover all its losses, and even gaining 1.01 points at the close. As indicated by A, support for the KLCI remains at 1487 and 1459 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 1500.

Despite the KLCI rebound, the immediate technical outlook remains on the negative side as it is still below the Bollinger Middle Band. If the Bollinger Bands should begin to contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 9.4%, with volume below the 40-day volume moving average. In short, the market is quiet. If volume should stay low, the KLCI or the general market sentiment is less likely to pick up any strength.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded after hitting 0%. But it is still below 30% now, thus suggesting a short term bearish signal for the KLCI. The short term bearish signal shall remains intact, until the Stochastic could break above 30%.

As the KLCI fell below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for the KLCI is now turning bearish. If the KLCI should form a lower-high, it would be a signal suggesting a downtrend formation. In short, the KLCI has to return to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA in order to avoid further dampen to its technical view.

HAPPY TRADING