Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年11月12日/FBMKLCI 12/11/2010

综合指数 2010年 11月 12日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数在区域股市纷纷走低的影响及马股出现套利活动下走低，综指一度下跌至1488.06点，所幸的是在接近1487.17点的费氏支持线，使到综指出现回弹。综指按日下滑13.89点或0.92%，以1499.81点闭市，综指当前的支持线是1487.17点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1500点的心理关口。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄1%，这显示综指目前仍然处于一个调整巩固的格局里，无论如何，由于综指跌破布林中频带，所以综指有出现转弱的风险。由于综指一度跌破布林下频带，所以综指受到此超卖讯号的影响而回弹，而布林中频带则成为综指接下来的动态阻力线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量增加9.39%，所以成交量依然处于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这显示马股整体的投资气氛良好，无论如何，以技术而言，接下来若综指在下跌时成交量过高表示卖压沉重，这是投资者必须考虑的因素。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微跌破30%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势有进入下跌的迹象，换句话说，若随机指标未能在短期内重返30%以上，综指的短期走势将有进一步下跌的可能。

总的来说，综指在创新高后引发的套利活动再加上区域股市纷纷下滑，这使到综指连续下跌两天，接下来若布林频带继续收窄，综指将进入横摆巩固的走势，再度酝酿新的走势，不过若布林频带接下来开始打开，而综指则继续处于布林中频带以下的话，那综指将有进一步下跌的风险。

FBM KLCI 12 November 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI took a dip on Friday, together with falling regional markets. The KLCI had its intra-day low or 1488.06, but managed to rebound, closing at 1499.81 points, losing 13.89 points or 0.92%. Immediate support for the KLCI is at 1487.17 while the resistance is at 1500.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 1%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating or having its technical correction. However, with the KLCI now below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is on the negative side.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 9.39%, with volume above the 40-day volume moving average. If volume should remain high while the KLCI is falling, it implies that the selling pressure is high, thus it would dampen the market sentiment.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell below 30% by margin, and if the Stochastic should stay below 30%, it would be a short term bearish signal for the KLCI. If the Stochastic could rebound and stay around 50% level, the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to be in a sideways manner.

In conclusion, profit taking pulled down the KLCI, but it is too soon to call for a downtrend formation, as the KLCI is still testing the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

Take Note : FBM KLCI closed below psychological support 1500.
This is detrimental to investors' sentiments.

HAPPY WEEKEND