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Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Technical Analysis : FBM ACE 25/10/2010 / 富时大马 ACE 指数 2010年 10月 25日

FBM ACE 25/10/2010
As indicated by A, the FBMACE continued its consolidation on Monday, gaining 4.19 points or 0.1%. Resistance for the FBMACE remains at 4330 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the support is still at 14, 21, 31 EMA, which is the dynamic support.
Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 15%, suggesting that the FBMACE is still consolidating, and the market direction is expected to be unclear, until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands. With the FBMACE above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook is expected to be on the positive side.

As circled at B, the Stochastic fell below 70% by margin on Monday, and if the Stochastic should stay below 70%, it would be an end to the short term bullish signal. If the FBMACE should continue to consolidate, the Stochastic is expected to stay around 50% level.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still falling, as it suggests that the FBMACE is still losing strength. The weakening movement of the FBMACE is expected to continue until the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Bottom.

In short, the uptrend is unaffected but the FBMACE is expected to stay in consolidation, until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the FBMACE above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a good chance that it would resume the uptrend.

富时大马 ACE 指数 2010年 10月 25日
如图中箭头A所示,富时大马创业板指数周一继续盘整格局,按日微扬4.19点或0.1%。创业板阻力水平仍然是4330点的费氏阻力线,支持水平则继续是14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)的动态支持线。

另一方面,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)进一步收窄(收窄15%),这表示创业板目前仍然处于盘整格局中,所以走势一般不明朗,直到布林频带重新打开为止。无论如何,由于创业板仍然处于布林中频带以上,所以目前还未出现转弱的迹象。

如图中B圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)稍微跌破70%水平。接下来若随机指标仍然处于70%水平以下,那创业板短期强势的讯号将结束。接下来若创业板继续处于盘整格局中,随机指标将会维持在50%的水平。

如图中C圈所示,平均乖离震荡指标(MACD Histogram)继续下滑,这表示创业板继续盘整,甚至有稍微转弱的可能。以技术而言,创业板盘整格局将持续下去,直到平均乖离震荡指标形成圆底(Rounding Bottom)为止。

总的来说,创业板涨势还未受到破坏,这是14、21、31天EMA仍然扶持创业板。创业板盘整格局将维持下去,直到布林频带重新打开为止,届时再由创业板所处于布林中频带的相对位置来判断新的走势。

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