Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2010年10月11日/FBMKLCI 11/10/2010

综合指数 2010年 10月 11日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数一度上探至1490.10点的水平，综指最终以1487.41点闭市，这也是综指33个月来的新高水平（自2008年1月15日来），综指当前的支持水平落在1480点的费氏线，阻力水平则维持在1500点的心理关口。

如图所示，虽然综指上扬，不过布林频带（Bollinger Bands）却收窄1%，这显示综指上扬的趋势仍然有限，这也与综指成分股项仍然面对套利卖压所致。无论如何，综指创下新高会带领个别股项上扬，所以接下来只要综指能保持在布林中频带以上，综指仍然有望更上一层楼。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微增加1.8%，这使到成交量得以保持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上的水平，这是马股整体市场仍然保持在一个活跃状态的信号，通常成交量保持在40天平均值对综指继续保持转强的格局是有利的。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续维持在70%以上的水平，从技术的角度来看，这是综指的短期走势依然维持上扬格局的讯号。一般上综指将有望继续保持短期转强的趋势，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，综指的短期走势继续有转强的趋势，惟布林频带依然未明显的打开，所以综指上扬的速度有限。无论如何，接下来只要综指继续保持在布林中频带以上，综指的后市将有望更上一层楼，惟目前只欠布林频带打开的东风。

FBM KLCI 11 October 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the 1490.10 level, and closed at 1487.41 points, which is a new high since 15th of January, 2008. Support for the KLCI is at 1480 while the resistance is at 1500 mark.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 1%, suggesting that the KLCI is basically still moving in a sideways manner. But immediate technical outlook remains positive, as the KLCI is above the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.8%, with volume above the 40-day volume moving average. Overall market is still actively participated and with the total market volume firmly above the 40-day volume moving average, the market sentiment as a whole is expected to stay positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, in the short term bullish region. This suggests that the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased, until the Stochastic should fall below 70%.

In conclusion, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still positive, while the long term uptrend remains intact as the KLCI is still above the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

HAPPY TRADING