TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2010年10月15日/FBM KLCI 15/10/2010

综合指数 2010年 10月 15日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数下滑6.52点或0.4%，这使到综指以1489.86点闭市，综指当前的支持水平仍然是1480点的费氏线，由于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）接近此水平，所以综指预料能在此获得一定的扶持力量，综指接下来的阻力水平则维持在1500点的心理阻力关口。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄7%，这表示综指出现技术调整，通常综指的第一个调整目标是布林中频带这道动态支持线。若综指成功的在布林中频带上获得扶持而回弹，综指的技术调整将有望结束并出现回弹；反之若综指跌破布林中频带，综指则有进一步转弱的风险。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少19.9%，不过成交量仍然成功的守住40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这显示马股市场仍然相当活跃，不过由于交投量减少了，所以接下来若成交量未能增加，那马股的成交量将有跌破40天平均值的可能，届时市场将有迈入淡静或转弱的风险。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破70%的水平，这表示综指的短期上扬的趋势结束了，除非随机指标能在短期内重新回到70%以上。

总的来说，由于布林频带收窄，所以综指出现了技术调整，这也意味着综指的上扬趋势结束；无论如何，接下来若综指能在布林中频带上扬或扶持，综指仍然有望再度转强。换句话说，若综指跌破布林中频带，那综指的短期走势将有进一步转弱的风险。不过若以中长期来看，只要综指能继续在14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）获得扶持，综指的中长期走势仍然属于上扬的格局中，直到综指跌破此EMA为止。

FBM KLCI 15 Oct 2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI fell 6.52 points or 0.4% on Friday, closing at 1489.86 points. Support for the KLCI is at 1480 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance remains at 1500 level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 7%, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating, and the Bollinger Middle Band shall be the dynamic support. If the KLCI could rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook is expected to remain positive.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 19.9%, but volume remains above the 40-day volume moving average. This suggests that the overall market is still actively participated, but if the KLCI should attempt to break above the 1500 level again, more volume is needed.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell below 70%, and this is a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction for the KLCI.

In conclusion, the KLCI failed to break above 1500 level, and started its technical correction, but the overall uptrend remains unaffected as the KLCI is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA long term dynamic support.

HAPPY WEEKEND