TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2010年 10月 04日/FBMKLCI 04/10/2010

综合指数 2010年 10月 04日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数一度上扬，惟综指在最后一刻分钟的套利下使到综指反而按日下滑4.05点，以1462.27点的全日最低水平闭市，综指当前的支持水平继续的落在1436点及1424点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1479.59点的费氏线。

如图所示布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度为零，这表示布林频带并未打开，亦没有收窄，这通常是综指继续保持横摆巩固格局的讯号，换句话说，综指目前正在酝酿着一个新的趋势，而新趋势只在布林频带开始明显的打开时才出现。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然综指最终微跌，不过综指曾一度上扬，带动交投，所以马股的成交量增长40.6%，这使到成交量继续高于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）。以技术而言，市场的交投量增加显示承接力量也增加，这对综指转强是有利的。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）下滑至50%的水平，这于布林频带打开零%不谋而合，显示综指的走势目前仍然处于横摆的格局，有待市场进一步的演变，综指的后市才会更明朗化。

总的来说，虽然综指一度尝试上探1480点的阻力水平，不过综指最终仍然在套利活动下回吐，所幸的是综指精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）动态支持线上获得扶持，接下来若综指能继续保持在布林中频带以上的话，综指的后市将继续有望转强。

FBM KLCI 04/10/2010
As indicated by A, despite the earlier gains, the FBM KLCI ended losing 4.05 points to close at 1462.27 points. Support for the KLCI remains at 1436 and 1424 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1479.59 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands stopped expanding, suggesting that the Bollinger Bands might be contracting. If the Bollinger Bands should begin to contract, it would be a consolidation signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 40.6%, suggesting some increased of market participation. With the volume above the 40-day VMA level, the overall market sentiment is expected to be on the positive side. However, do note that if the KLCI should retreat with higher volume, it would suggests an increased of selling pressure.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell to 50%, suggesting some weakening movement for the KLCI short term. If the Stochastic should break below 30%, it would be a short term bearish signal for the KLCI.

In short, due to profit taking, the KLCI is still capped under 1480 resistance, but its uptrend remains unaffected for the KLCI is still above the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

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