U.S. Dollar Index and Crude Oil >>> Charts and Commentaries

U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback in one composite index.

See on the weekly continuation chart for nearby U.S. dollar index futures that prices have been trending higher since the late-November 2009 low. Prices recently hit a fresh six-month high.

See, too, at the bottom of the weekly dollar index chart that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bullish posture, as the thick blue MACD line is above the thin red "trigger" line, and both lines are trending higher.

The MACD lines are also in the same posture as they were in Q3 of 2008 -- just after which time the U.S. dollar index trended strongly higher.

Daily Overview : The March Dollar extended this month's trading range above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-decline crossing at 79.71.

Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.83.

Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-decline crossing at 81.32.

First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.70.

Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 79.61.

The U.S. Dollar was being last traded at 81.035 (+0.560) at time of writing

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Crude Oil

The uptrend on the weekly continuation chart for nearby crude-oil futures has recently "rolled over" into a choppy and sideways trading range.

It's likely that in the coming weeks, crude oil will continue to trade in a choppy and sideways fashion, between solid overhead longer term, technical resistance at the January high of $83.95 a barrel and the December 2009 low of $68.59, basis nearby futures.

The direction in which nearby-crude oil futures "break out" of the trading range bound by the aforementioned support and resistance levels on the weekly chart is very likely to be the direction of the next significant longer-term price trend in the market.

Daily Overview: March crude oil closed higher and above the 62% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 78.75 as it extended the rally off this month's low. Today's rally was supported by reported outages at Buzzard oil field.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 80.72 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.11.

Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 80.72.

First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.83.

Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.72.

Crude Oil March Futures was being last traded at 79.06 (+1.73) at time of writing