ZLBT Chats

Thursday, February 18, 2010

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> 综合指数 2010年 02月 18日 / Composite Index 18/02/2010

综合指数 2010年 02月 18日
如图中箭头A所示,综指周四再次的试探14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)的动态阻力线,惟继续在14、21、31天的EMA遇阻,综指微跌0.07点。这表示14、21、31天的EMA依然是综指下跌的动态阻力线,所以综指还未完全摆脱跌势。


另一方面,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)还未打开,这表示综指目前依然处于盘整格局中。无论如何,综指阻力水平依然是1272点的费氏线及14、21、31天的EMA,支持水平则是1250 的费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量虽然增加9.9%,但却依然低于40天的成交量平均线(VMA),这表示当前市场的交投仍然属于低迷。换句话说,市场还是缺乏足够的买盘来吸纳套利的卖压,所以若总成交量继续处于40天的平均值以下,那综指暂时还是难以转强。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续维持在70%水平以上,这是综指短期强势区域。不过,由于综指依然在14、21、31天的EMA遇阻,再加上布林频带还未打开,所以随机指标短期转强的讯号还未获得确认。

总的来说,综指自上周在1224点反弹以来,至今一共上扬34点,同时综指精确的在14、21、31天的EMA遇阻,所以综指有下调的迹象。接下来若综指开始下跌而失守布林中频带及1250点的费氏线,那综指将有恢复跌势的风险。

Composite Index 18/02/2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the 14, 21, 31 EMA on Thursday, and precisely resisted by the 14, 21, 3 EMA, which is serving as the dynamic resistance for the KLCI, and the KLCI loss 0.07 of a point.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands did not expand, suggesting that the KLCI is still in a consolidating stage. Nonetheless, resistance for the KLCI remains at 1272 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 1250 Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 9.9%, but remains further below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still relatively very quiet, thus the buying interests is still low. Therefore, the KLCI is less likely to pickup any strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains above 70% level, in the short term bullish territory. However, due to the resistance at the 14, 21, 31 EMA, coupled with the Bollinger Bands not expanding, the significance of the Stochastic is reduced.

In conclusion, the KLCI has gained 34 points even since its rebound from the 1224 level. With the KLCI currently resisted by the dynamic resistance, of the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the KLCI is expected to pullback slightly. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should start falling, and breaks below the 1250 level or the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook would turn bearish.

No comments:

Post a Comment