TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 17/02/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 02月 17日

Composite Index 17/02/2010
As indicated by A, the KLCI gained 5.68 points or 0.5% on Wednesday, after breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band. Resistance for the KLCI is at 1272 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 1250 level, as well as the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 4%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. The consolidation of the KLCI is expected to continue until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

As indicated by B, total market volume remain below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market is still very quiet. Technically, as the KLCI is still consolidating, a lower market volume is normal. However, if the KLCI should attempt to rally, volume above the 40-day VMA level is a must to confirm the bullish movement.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above 70% level on Wednesday, entering the short term bullish territory. However, due to the contraction of the Bollinger Bands, this short term bullish signal is yet to be confirmed. This is because, whenever the Bollinger Bands contracts, significance of the Secondary Indicator signals is reduced. Nonetheless, if the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to improve.

In conclusion, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook is slightly positive. If the KLCI should remain above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is still a chance for the KLCI to regain its positive position, but it has to be confirmed with the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, coupled with the volume above the 40-day VMA level.

综合指数 2010年 02月 17日
如图中箭头A所示，综指上扬突破布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）后，周三继续上扬，按日涨5.68点或0.5%。综指当期的支持水平是布林中频带的动态支持线及1250点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1272点的费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄4%，这表示综指当前依然处于盘整格局中。接下来若布林频带继续收窄，那综指将继续处于盘整，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量继续处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下，这表示目前马股的交投依然是淡静的。以技术而言，当综指进入盘整格局时，成交量偏低是正常的。但若综指转强时，成交量就必须明显的增加，并且保持在40天的平均值以上，那涨势才能获得确认。

如图C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）周三上扬突破70%水平，进入短期强势格局。不过由于布林频带继续收窄，这短期转强的讯号将有待进一步的确认。这是因为当布林频带收窄时，辅助指标（Secondary Indicators）如随机指标讯号的可靠性将稍微减低。无论如何，只要随机指标能继续保持在70%水平以上，那综指短期的走势依然有望改善。

总的来说，当前综指继续处于布林中频带以上将有利于综指后市的表现。接下来只要综指能继续获得布林中频带的扶持，那综指盘整后依然有上扬的机会，惟必须获得布林频带重新打开，而综指亦能维持在布林中频带以上，再加上马股总成交量上扬突破40天平均值的确认。