富时综合指数周二一度下滑至1224.37点，惟综指最终精确的在周一提到的1233.45点费氏线上获得扶持，综指按日只微跌1.36点，以1233.86点闭市。如图所示，1233.45点的费氏线继续成为综指当前的支持水平，1200点则为下一道支持水平，综指当前的阻力水平则继续处于1250点的费氏线。如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄4%，这表示综指的跌势有开始缓和下来的迹象，通常若布林频带继续收窄的话，那综指将有望出现技术反弹或横摆巩固，而布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）则将会成为综指的动态阻力线，所以技术上，综指是必须先上扬突破布林中频带，那综指才有望结束下跌的趋势。
.jpg)
如图中B圈所示，马股总成交量只微升0.6%，所以成交量继续的处于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以下，这意味着马股整体市场属于淡静，这是马股在进行调整或巩固时的典型状态。
如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）从0%回弹，这表示综指短期有望出现技术反弹；惟随机指标是必须先上扬突破30%的水平，那综指的技术反弹才有望转为短期的上扬趋势。
总的来说，综指仅仅在1233.45点的费氏线获得扶持，若综指接下来未能继续的处于此费氏线以上，那综指将有进一步下滑的风险。无论如何，接下来综指出现技术反弹的可能性高，惟若综指一日未能上扬突破布林中频带，那任何上扬的趋势只能算是纯技术反弹而已。
.jpg)
如图中B圈所示，马股总成交量只微升0.6%，所以成交量继续的处于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以下，这意味着马股整体市场属于淡静，这是马股在进行调整或巩固时的典型状态。如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）从0%回弹，这表示综指短期有望出现技术反弹；惟随机指标是必须先上扬突破30%的水平，那综指的技术反弹才有望转为短期的上扬趋势。
总的来说，综指仅仅在1233.45点的费氏线获得扶持，若综指接下来未能继续的处于此费氏线以上，那综指将有进一步下滑的风险。无论如何，接下来综指出现技术反弹的可能性高，惟若综指一日未能上扬突破布林中频带，那任何上扬的趋势只能算是纯技术反弹而已。
Composite Index 09/02/2010
On Tuesday, the KLCI had its intra-day low touching 1224.37 points, but it managed to rebound in the afternoon session, and as a result, the KLCI only ended 1.36 points lower, to close at 1233.86 points. As shown on the chart above, the 1233.45 Fibonacci Retracement is still the support for the KLCI while the next support is at 1200 level, resistance is at 1250 Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands contracted 4%, suggesting that the KLCI is likely to have a consolidation, or a chance of a technical rebound, and the Bollinger Middle Band shall be the first target of the rebound. In other words, the KLCI has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band in order to break away from the short term bearish movement.
.jpg)
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 0.6%, and therefore, total market volume is still below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market participation is still insufficient, which is typical of a consolidating market.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded from the 0% level, after being over-sold. If the Stochastic should break above 30% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical rebound for the KLCI.
In conclusion, the KLCI is supported by the 1233.45 Fibonacci Retracement, and if the KLCI should stay above this level, it is likely to consolidate. However, despite the chance of a technical rebound, it is still staying below the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased.
On Tuesday, the KLCI had its intra-day low touching 1224.37 points, but it managed to rebound in the afternoon session, and as a result, the KLCI only ended 1.36 points lower, to close at 1233.86 points. As shown on the chart above, the 1233.45 Fibonacci Retracement is still the support for the KLCI while the next support is at 1200 level, resistance is at 1250 Fibonacci Retracement.As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands contracted 4%, suggesting that the KLCI is likely to have a consolidation, or a chance of a technical rebound, and the Bollinger Middle Band shall be the first target of the rebound. In other words, the KLCI has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band in order to break away from the short term bearish movement.
.jpg)
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 0.6%, and therefore, total market volume is still below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market participation is still insufficient, which is typical of a consolidating market.As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded from the 0% level, after being over-sold. If the Stochastic should break above 30% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical rebound for the KLCI.
In conclusion, the KLCI is supported by the 1233.45 Fibonacci Retracement, and if the KLCI should stay above this level, it is likely to consolidate. However, despite the chance of a technical rebound, it is still staying below the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased.
No comments:
Post a Comment