TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 26/10/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 10月 26日

Composite Index 26/10/2009

The Bollinger Bands contracted 9%, and the KLCI failed to break above the 1270 resistance, as indicated by A, which is a typical post-budget correction. Support for the KLCI remains at 1248 while the resistance is at 1270 level followed by the 1300 psychological level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Middle Band is the dynamic support for the KLCI as the KLCI is having its correction. Generally, if the KLCI should remain supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side, and the current correction is only technical.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 11.2%, with the volume below the 40-day VMA level. Nevertheless, usually when the KLCI is having its correction or consolidation, volume tends to decrease. However, if the KLCI should resume its rally, volume above the 40-day VMA level is a must to confirm the bullishness of the KLCI.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell on Monday as the KLCI ended lower. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, the short term movement of the KLCI might be turning weaker. In other words, it is crucial for the Stochastic to maintain above 70% level in order to sustain the bullish biased movement.

In short, the KLCI is having its post budget correction, and for immediate view, provided that the KLCI is still supported by 1248 or the Bollinger Middle Band, there is still a chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend. But if the Bollinger Bands should continue to contract, the consolidation or the correction of the KLCI is expected to continue, and then, we shall need to wait until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands to determine the new movement of the KLCI.

综合指数 2009年 10月 26日

布林频带（Bollinger Bands）再度收窄9%，所以富时综合指数未能突破1270点的阻力水平（参考箭头A），形成了一个典型的“后预算案技术调整”，综指当前的支持水平落在1248点的费氏线，阻力水平则分别是1270点及1300点。

如图所示，由于综指出现技术调整，所以布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）成为了综指接下来的动态支持线，一般上，只要综指能在布林中频带上获得扶持，综指将不会出现下跌的趋势，综指的下调只能算是技术调整而已。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少了11.2%，这使到成交跌破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，无论如何，若综指出现技术调整或横摆的话，那成交量低于40天是正常的，惟若综指要再度形成有力的上扬趋势，成交量是必须增加至40天平均值或以上的水平。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在综指下调的当儿也再度走低，接下来若随机指标跌破了70%的话，那综指的短期走势将有形成跌势的可能。换句话说，随机指标必须短期内回弹，综指才有望避开出现短期下跌的趋势。

总的来说，综指目前正处于一个典型的后预算案技术调整中，短期来看只要综指能在布林中频带或1248点的水平获得扶持，综指将有望开始回弹，再度上探更高的水平。无论如何，若布林频带继续收窄，那综指将会进入调整巩固的格局，届时必须等待布林频带再度打开，综指才会开始新的趋势。