TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 19/10/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 10月 19日

Composite Index 19/10/2009

After breaking above the 1248 Fibonacci Retracement (As indicated by A), the KLCI continued its uptrend, while the 1248 Fibonacci Retracement is still the support for the KLCI. Resistance for the KLCI is seen at 1300 psychological level and followed by the 1305 Fibonacci Retracement, and it is likely to be a strong resistance ahead.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands only expanded 1%, but it still managed to gain 4.73 points. Nevertheless, if the Bollinger Bands should begin to contract, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction, and the Bollinger Middle Band would be the first target of the correction.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 16.3%, with volume firmly above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market is well-participated as inflow of fresh buying interests in improving. With volume maintaining above the 40-day VMA level, the positive market sentiment as well as the KLCI uptrend is expected to sustain.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still on the higher side, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased, until the Stochastic should break below 70% level.

In conclusion, with the expansion rate of the Bollinger Bands reduced, it implies that the KLCI is likely to consolidate or having its technical correction, as the KLCI uptrend is gradually slowing down. But still, provided that the KLCI is supported by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support, the KLCI uptrend remains intact.
综合指数 2009年 10月 19日
富时综合指数自突破1248点的费氏线阻力后（参考箭头A），综指继续维持在上扬的格局，综指当前的支持水平继续的是1248点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1300点的心理阻力水平，这也与1305点的费氏线相近，所以综指在此水平遇阻的机会高。

如图所示，虽然布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度只是1%，不过综指仍然上扬4.73点；无论如何，若布林频带开始收窄的话，那将是综指出现技术调整的讯号，而布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）将成为综指调整中的第一道支持水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增加16.3%，这使到成交量继续的维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这是整体市场活跃的讯号，由于市场的承接力量增加，这将有助于综指维持在上扬的趋势。
如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续高企，所以综指的短期走势也保持在上扬的格局，通常综指将有望保持着目前上扬的趋势，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，由于布林频带打开幅度减少，所以综指的涨势也有缓和下来的迹象。无论如何，布林中频带将继续成为综指的动态支持线，只要综指继续获得布林中频带的扶持，综指将有望继续转强。