TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 10月 08日 / Composite Index 08/10/2009

综合指数 2009年 10月 08日

期待已久的布林频带（Bollinger Bands）终于开始打开（+30%），再加上富时综合指数成功的保持在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，所以综指扬升11.48点或0.9%。接下来只要布林频带继续的打开，基本上综指目前属于一个上扬的趋势，直到布林频带打开的幅度减少或收窄为止。

另一方面，综指目前处于14、21及31天的加权移动平均线（EMA）以上，这表示综指依然是受到此长期动态支持线的扶持，所以综指的长期走势依然保持在上扬的格局中，直到综指跌破此EMA为止。除此之外，综指当前的支持水平是布林中频带以及1200点的心理支持水平，阻力水平则是1248点的费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，成交量滑落7.6%，惟还是高于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示整体市场的交投量活跃，这也使到市场的承接力量增加，有助于综指继续转强。

如图中箭头C所示，综指从横摆转为上扬，使到随机指标（Stochastic）冲至100%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势稍微过热，无论如何，只要随机指标能继续处于70%以上的话，那综指的短期走势将有望继续走高，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

由于布林频带打开这一道“东风”吹起，所以综指开始了酝酿一阵子的涨势，技术上综指目前属于涨势的开端，所以只要外围因素不变，综指走势有望更上一层楼，直到布林频带开始的幅度收窄或随机指标跌破70%为止。

Composite Index 08/10/2009

On Thursday, the long-waited expansion of Bollinger Bands Width has finally happened, and with the KLCI remains above the Bollinger Middle Band, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands suggests a bullish signal, and as a result, the KLCI gained 11.48 points or 0.9%. Provided that the Bollinger Bands is still expanding, the bullish biased movement of the KLCI is likely to carry on until the Bollinger Bands should contract.

Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA long term dynamic support remains intact, and it is still supporting the KLCI uptrend. Therefore, the KLCI uptrend is still in place. Other than the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support, the 1200 psychological level is also the support for the KLCI, while resistance is at 1248 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume shrunk 7.6%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market participation is relatively sufficient, which is a sign of improving inflow of buying interests, and therefore, provided that the volume is still above the 40-day VMA level, it would help to sustain the positive market sentiment.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is now reaching 100%, as the KLCI is advancing. The Stochastic is suggesting that the KLCI short term movement is likely to be over-heated, but still, provided that the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the short term bullish movement of the KLCI is still in place.

The expansion of the Bollinger Bands signaled a bullish movement for the KLCI and technically speaking, this is the beginning of a bullish movement, and provided the external factors remain unchanged, the bullish biased movement of the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract or the Stochastic breaking below 70% level.