TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 10月 30日 / Composite Index 30/10/2009

综合指数 2009年 10月 30日

富时综合指数一度上探1248点的费氏线阻力水平，惟综指再度精确的在1248点遇阻（参考箭头A），综指随后在1248点以下的水平闭市，所以1248点继续成为综指当前的主要阻力水平，综指接下来的支持水平是1243点及1220点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度减少至6%，这表示综指出现的跌势有缓和下来的迹象，接下来若布林频带继续收窄，那综指将有望进入巩固的格局，这将使到综指避开进一步下跌的格局。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微增加7.1%，这显示成交量仍然处于一个活跃的状态，这对综指转强有着正面的作用。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）回弹，接下来若随机指标能上扬突破30%的水平，那综指的短期走势将有望摆脱下跌的困境。不过若随机指标继续维持在30%以下的水平，那综指的短期走势将处于偏弱的格局。

总的来说，综指再次受到外围市场上扬的影响，出现回弹，惟综指在1248点的水平遇阻，由于1248点是综指自创下1524.69点高峰的61.8%费氏回归线，在技术上这是综指主要阻力水平，所以在羊群心理的影响下，综指并未如区域股市的大举上扬；再加上马股仍然处于“后预算案跌潮”中，所以综指表现平平。无论如何，接下来若综指能上扬突破布林中频带及1248点的费氏线，综指的后市将有望继续转强，反之若布林频带进一步打开，而综指始终低于布林中频带，那综指将再度出现下跌的趋势。

Composite Index 30/10/2009
The FBM KLCI tested the 1248 Fibonacci Retracement, but still resisted by the 1248 FR, study arrow A. Therefore, the 1248 is still the resistance for the KLCI while the supports are at 1243 and 1220 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expansion rate reduced to only 6%, this implies that the downside movement might be slowing down, or if the Bollinger Bands should contract, the KLCI is likely to consolidate.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 7.1%. This suggests that the overall market participation is still active and the market sentiment as a whole is still on the positive side.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded, but still below 30% level, which suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still bearish biased. If the Stochastic should break above 30% level, there is a chance for the KLCI to regain some strength.

In conclusion, the KLCI rebounded as the markets across the globe rebounded, but still, it is resisted by the 1248 FR. Since the 1248 Fibonacci Retracement is the 61.8% retracement between the highest 1524.69 and the lowest 801 points, it is an important resistance / support level. Therefore, the KLCI is still testing this resistance level. Coupled with the post-budget correction, the KLCI ended mostly flat. Nonetheless, if the KLCI should break above the 1248 FR as well as the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a good chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend. But on the other hand, if the KLCI should continue to stay below the Bollinger Middle Band, the outlook for the KLCI shall remain bearish biased.