TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 10月 22日 / Composite Index 22/10/2009

综合指数 2009年 10月 22日

富时综合指数微跌0.04点，基本上算是横摆巩固，这是布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄13%的结果，因为在布林频带收窄时，这是代表综指处于一个调整巩固的格局。目前综指的支持水平有着1248点的费氏线，动态支持线则是布林中频带，由于布林中频带目前与1248点重叠，所以支持力量有望倍增，因此综指在此水平获得扶持的机会高。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量再度下滑17.8%，这使到成交量跌至40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这是综指在盘整时的典型状况，通常投资者在后市未明朗之前，都纷纷选择离场观望，无论如何，成交量低表示市场在综指下调时并未出现惊慌抛售的情形。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标继续滑落（Stochastic），这是因为综指的短期走势趋软，若接下来随机指标跌破70%的话，综指的短期走势将被确认出现下跌的趋势，换句话说，随机指标必须避开跌破70%这关口，综指的短期走势才能有望避过出现跌势的格局。

平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）则进一步下滑，这再度显示综指的短期走势有转弱的趋势，直到平均乖离形成一个圆底（Rounding Bottom）为止。

总的来说，综指继续处于技术调整的格局，而随机指标及振荡指标则暗示综指有进一步走低的风险，所幸的是在布林频带收窄时，一般上技术指标的都必须等待布林频带再度打开，才能确认任何新趋势的方向；换句话说，技术指标只是显示综指有开始趋软的迹象，惟必须等到布林频带打开的讯号，才能确认综指的涨势是否已经结束了。

Composite Index 22/10/2009

The FBM KLCI ended almost flat, losing only 0.04 points, as the Bollinger Bands contracted 14%. Generally, when the Bollinger Bands is contracting, the fluctuation of the index is usually lower, as it is the signal suggesting a consolidation. Support for the KLCI remains at 1248 Fibonacci Retracement and the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic support. Since the Bollinger Bands is now situated at the 1248 level, this is likely to strengthen the support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 17.8%, with volume at the 40-day VMA level. This, however, is quite normal for the KLCI is consolidating, as investors are staying on the sideline while waiting for more fresh leads. Nonetheless, the lower volume also suggest that there is no panic selling in the market.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still falling, as the KLCI short term movement is weakening. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting an end to the short term bullish movement. In other words, it is crucial for the Stochastic to maintain above 70% level.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is still falling, suggesting that the KLCI short term movement is still weakening. Unless the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Bottom, the weakening movement of the KLCI is expected to continue.

In conclusion, the KLCI is still having its technical correction or a consolidation, with the Stochastic and MACD histogram showing signs of a weakening movement for the KLCI. But, with the KLCI still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI has not formed a downtrend yet. In other words, the Bollinger Bands Width must re-expand to confirm the new direction for the KLCI. In shorts, technical indicators, such as the Stochastic, are only showing early sign of weakening movement, it has to be confirmed by the Bollinger Band.

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