TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 10月 27日 / Composite Index 27/10/2009

综合指数 2009年 10月 27日
在道指下挫的影响下，亚太区域股市纷纷下跌，富时综合指数也不例外，综指一度下跌13.54点，无论如何如图中箭头A所示，综指精确的在1248点的费氏线获得扶持而回弹，这印证了1248点的费氏线将成为综指重要支持水平的建议。无论如何，这也表示若综指跌破1248点的话，综指下一道的支持水平将落在1220点的费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄16%，所以综指继续的调整巩固，无论如何，综指跟随区域股市下滑，并且一度布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的动态支持线，不过虽然综指一度出现偏软的趋势，当在综指成功上扬突破布林中频带后，综指仍然是处于上扬的格局。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然综指盘中下跌，不过马股成交量却上扬增加，并且突破40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这表示综指受到一定的卖压。无论如何，随着综指在1248点的费氏线获得扶持后，综指收窄跌幅，形成一个长下影线的锤子阴阳烛，这是投资者趁低吸购的迹象。

随机指标（Stochastic）跌至70%的水平，这表示综指短期涨势并未结束，换句话说，综指短期走势仍然属于上扬的趋势。一般上，综指将继续维持目前的走势，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

虽然综指一度受外围的影响的下滑，并且跌至1248点的费氏线回弹，由于1248点费氏线与L1上升趋势线重叠，所以扶持力量倍增，这使到投资者在此支撑水平趁低吸纳优质股项，使到综指回弹。总的来说，综指仍然处于一个上扬的格局，除非综指跌破布林中频带、1248点的费氏线及L1上升趋势线等扶持水平。

Composite Index 27/10/2009
As the over night loss of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, most major indices in Asian were lower, including the FBM KLCI. The KLCI had its intraday losing of 13.54 points, but as indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded precisely at 1248 Fibonacci Retracement, which suggests that the 1248 Fibonacci Retracement is still an important support for the KLCI. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should beak below the 1248 Fibonacci Retracement, then the next support for the KLCI is at 1220 FR.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 16%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. As lead by the regional markets, the KLCI breaks below the Bollinger Middle Band, while still consolidating, but managed to close above at the Bollinger Middle Band . Nevertheless, with the KLCI still above the Bollinger Middle Band, the uptrend is still intact.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased, breaking above the 40-day VMA level, despite that the KLCI ended lower. This suggests that the market participation as a whole is still active, and provided that the volume could maintain above the 40-day VMA level, the bullish biased sentiment is likely to be sustainable. Meanwhile, the lower shadow candlestick of the KLCI suggested some bargain hunting activities.

With the Stochastic still above the 70% level, this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. Provided that the Stochastic could hold up to above 70% level, the short term uptrend for the KLCI is expected to continue.

Due to external factors, the KLCI had its intra-day low touching the 1248 FR. Since the 1248 Fibonacci Retracement overlaps with the L1 uptrend line, it is generally a stronger support for the KLCI. In short, the KLCI is still in an uptrend, unless the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band or the 1248 Fibonacci Retracement or the L1 uptrend line.