TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 07/10/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 10月 07日

Composite Index 07/10/2009

As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI gained marginally, while remains supported by the Bollinger Middle Band. This shows that the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side, and if the Bollinger Bands should expands with the KLCI still above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI is likely to trend up.
Meanwhile, the KLCI is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA long term uptrend dynamic support. In short, provided that the KLCI is still above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the long term uptrend is still intact. Other than the support from the EMA, the 1200 psychological level remains intact, while the resistance is still at 1248 Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by B, total market volume breaks above the 40-day VMA level, coupled with the gainers out numbered losers, it shows that the market participation has improved as inflow of fresh capital is increasing. Provided that the volume is still above the 40-day VMA level, the market sentiment is likely to improve.
As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above 70% level, entering the short term bullish territory, this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is now bullish biased; and provided that the Stochastic can remain above 70% level, the short term bullish biased movement is expected to continue.
Technically, the KLCI outlook is still bullish biased, while waiting for the expansion of the Bollinger Bands to confirm such signal. Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expands with the KLCI remain above the Bollinger Middle Band, coupled with volume above the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is expected to have yet another rally.

综合指数 2009年 10月 07日

如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）获得扶持后，在周三进一步上扬，继续处于布林中频带以上，所以接下来若布林频带（Bollinger Bands）开始打开，那综指将有望酝酿成一个上扬的趋势。
另一方面，综指目前继续的处于14、21及31天加权移动平均线（EMA） 以上的水平，这表示综指的中长期走势依然获得良好的扶持，因为只要综指一日处于14、21及31天EMA以上，综指转强的几率依然高。除了EMA外，综指当前的支持水平依然落在1200点的心理支持水平，阻力水平则是1248点的费氏线。
如图中箭头B所示，成交量成功突破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），再加上整体股市上升股项居多，这显示投资者开始回笼，并且对综指的后市开始改观。接下来若成交量能继续维持在40天平均值以上的话，这将对综指转强有着正面的作用。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）上扬突破70%的水平，这是综指短期走势转强的讯号，换句话说，只要随机指标能继续保持70%以上的话，那综指将有望开始新一轮的涨势。
技术上，综指技术上扬的条件只缺布林频带打开了，所以接下来若成交量能维持在40天平均值以上，而综指亦成功守住布林中频带以上的水平，那在布林频带开始打开时，综指将形成一个上扬的格局。总的来说，综指有开始转强的迹象，只待布林频带打开的这一道“东风”，所以接下来必须密切关注布林频带的变化，以便能掌握先机。