Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年02月7日 / FBMKLCI 07/02/2011

综合指数 2011年 02月 7日

富时大马综合指数（综指）周一继续上周的技术反弹，按日上扬3.78点或0.25%，以1535.60点挂收。如图中箭头A所示，虽然综指继续反弹，不过却仍然在14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA）的动态阻力线遇阻，这表示综指还未转强。综指阻力水平仍然是1537点的费氏线，支持水平则是1525点的费氏线。

另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄（收窄15%），这表示综指当前仍然处于盘整格局中，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的总成交量明显增加110.09%，这使到成交量上扬突破40天的平均线（VMA）。一般来说，当成交量突破40天的成交量平均值的话，往往表示市场交投活跃，而同时也可以视为投资者信心增加的讯号。不过，马股周一成交量剧增，主要还是有一些低价股（如艾力斯-Iris，加拉布乃- Kbunai，达南–Talam及SAAG综合- Saag）的活跃交易所致，因此未能完全反映出大势（或综指）整体上的交投。因此，马股交投能否恢复活跃，仍然有待进一步的确认。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）自上扬突破30%水平后，周一继续的走高，这表示综指短期仍然处于技术反弹的格局中。不过，随机指标却未能上扬突破70%水平，因此这表示综指短期还未能转强。

马股在春节假期后，继续了假期前的技术反弹，不过仍然还未完全摆脱偏弱的格局。以技术而言，综指必须上扬突破14、21、31天EMA的动态阻力线，届时才有望转强。接下来若马股成交量能继续维持在40天的VMA以上的话，那将有望改善马股整体上的投资气氛，这将利于综指转强的希望。 

FBM KLCI 07 February 2011

The KLCI continued its technical rebound on Monday, gaining 3.78 points or 0.25%, to close at 1535.60. As indicated by A, the KLCI is still resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, which is still serving as the dynamic resistance. Support for the KLCI is at 1525 while the resistance is still at 1537 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 15%, and this suggests that the KLCI is still consolidating. The direction for the KLCI shall remain unclear until the Bollinger Bands should begin to expand.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 110.09 %, breaking above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Generally, when volume is above the 40-day Volume Moving Average, it suggests that the market is actively participated, thus a sign of improvement of investors confidence. However, Monday's volume gain was mostly from active trading at some low-priced stocks, such as Iris, Kbunai, Talam and Saag. Therefore, whether or not the high volume could reflect the entire market sentiment, it yet to be sure.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still rising after breaking above 30%, and this suggests that the KLCI short term is still having its technical rebound. However, since the Stochastic has not broken above 70%, the market movement for the short term is not yet bullish.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for the KLCI remains weak, until the KLCI could successfully break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Nevertheless, if volume should remain strong, it would positively improve the market sentiment.