Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年02月10日 / FBMKLCI 10/02/2011

综合指数 2011年 02月 10日

如图中箭头A所示，由于蓝筹股项受到区域股市下跌的影响而下挫，富时综合指数跳空下跌，出现一个缺口（Gap），综指按日更下跌32.08点或2.09%，综指以1503.99点闭市。综指分别跌破了1525.49 以及1513.34点的费氏线，所以综指当前的支持水平下移至1498.31点，这也接近1500点的心理支持关口，阻力水平则是1513.34点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开17%，虽然打开幅度并不算太大，不过由于综指跌破了布林中频带，所以综指接下来有开始转弱的风险，除非综指在短期内重返布林中频带以上的水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量只稍微增加1.31%，不过成交量仍然处于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这显示市场交易活跃，不过由于综指下跌2.09%，成交量高于40天平均值表示虽然市场有一定的扶持力量，不过高的成交量也意味这卖压高。接下来若成交量在综指下跌的当儿继续高扯，那是显示市场的卖压凶猛。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）不但未能突破70%的水平，指标更在综指暴跌的影响下下跌至0%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势急转弯，形成了下跌的格局，惟随机指标跌至0%亦显示市场达到短期超卖的水平，有引发技术反弹的可能。
综指不但跌破了布林中频带，综指也一并的跌破了31天加权移动平均线（EMA），这显示综指只短暂的突破这两道动态阻力，综指再度呈现疲弱的走势。以技术而言，接下来综指必须迅速的回弹至这两道动态阻力上，或出现横摆巩固的格局，不然综指的后市将被看低一线。

FBM KLCI 10 February 2011

As indicated by A, the KLCI gap down on Thursday, falling 32.08 points or 2.09%, to close at 1503.99. Support for the KLCI is at 1500 while the resistance is at 1513.34 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded 17%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the Bollinger Bands is now showing a bearish biased signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.31%, with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Generally, when volume should increased with the falling of price, it suggests that the selling pressure is higher.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell sharply, to zero level, and entered the short term bearish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is negative, and this bearish biased movement shall carry on until the Stochastic could break above 30%.

In conclusion, the KLCI is again below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and forming a lower-high, and this is an early sign of a possible downtrend formation. If the KLCI should remain resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook shall stay negative.

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