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Thursday, February 24, 2011

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年02月24日 / FBMKLCI 24/02/2011

综合指数 2011年 02月 24日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指数精确的在T1下降趋势线遇阻,综指再度下跌,以1489.87点闭市,按日下跌21.24点或1.41%,这使到综指再度跌破了1500点的心理支持关口,综指当前的支持水平落在1480点及1474点的费氏线,阻力水平则是1498点的费氏线。

如图所示,T1的趋势线与1513点的费氏阻力线及14、21、31天加权移动平均线重叠,所以阻力也倍增,使到综指未能成功的突破这些阻力线。综指最终在布林中频带的水平闭市,所以接下来若综指继续的在阻力线以下,综指继续维持趋软走势的几率高.

如图中箭头B所示,虽然综指下跌21.24点,不过马股总成交量却反而增加18.16%,这是因为有投资者趁股价下跌的当儿买入,以求在股价反弹时获利,不过这亦同时使到价格下挫得快,加剧了跌势。接下来若综指继续下跌,成交量反而 续高扯的话,综指的后市将有进一步走低的风险。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)跌破30%的水平,这是随机指标发出综指短期进入跌势的讯号。一般上,接下来若指标继续维持在30%以下,综指的短期走势将继续维持在下跌的格局,直到指标能成功上扬突破30%为止。

虽然随机指标跌至0%的水平显示综指短期有超卖的迹象,不过以目前的走势来看,若综指继续的保持在加权移动平均线以及布林中频带以下的话,综指的后市将继续看低一线。

FBM KLCI 24 February 2011
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the T1 downtrend line, and started falling again on Thursday, losing 21.24 points or 1.41%, to close at 1489.87 points. The KLCI is now below the 1500 level, and the next support for the KLCI is at 1480 or the 1474 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, while the immediate resistance is at 1500 or 1498 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is also serving as the dynamic resistance, and as long as the KLCI is still resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook shall remain bearish biased.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 18.16%. However, with 863 counters falling, the increased of volume actually suggests a stronger selling pressure, which will eventually dampen the market sentiment.


As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell below 30%, re-entering the short term bearish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is weak, and the weakening movement shall continue, until the Stochastic could break above 30%.

In conclusion, although the Stochastic is now touching 0%, which suggests an over-sold condition. However, despite the short-term over-sold condition, the market technical outlook is indeed not looking good. In short, the 14, 21, 31 EMA should give a better picture of how the KLCI is doing than other indicators for now.


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