Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年02月28日 / FBMKLCI 28/02/2011

综合指数 2011年 02月 28日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数开始后下跌，综指周一的跌幅一度达14.89点或1%，惟综指精确的在1474点的费氏线获得扶持后回弹，综指以1491.25点闭市，按日微扬1.98点或0.13%。综指当前的支持水平仍然是1474点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1498点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）开始打开，虽然幅度只是8%，不算太明显，不过由于综指目前已经处于布林中频带以下了，接下来若布林频带进一步的打开，综指将有再度下跌的风险，直到综指能上扬突破布林中频带为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少16.31%，这使到成交量继续低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），显示马股缺乏交投量，这是在综指横摆巩固或走势不明朗时的典型状态。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在两日贴着0%的水平横摆后，显示综指出现短期技术超卖，所以随机指标周一回弹，并且上扬至30%的水平，这是综指出现技术反弹的讯号，不过由于随机指标并未明显突破30%的水平，所以综指的短期走势仍然属于弱势中。

总的来说，综指出现技术反弹使到综指微扬1.98点，不过综指目前始终低于14、21、31天加权移动平均线（VMA）及布林中频带，再加上综指处于下降轨道内，这表示综指整体的走势仍然是趋软的，直到综指能成功的上扬突破这些动态阻力线为止。

FBMKLCI 28 February 2011

As indicated by A, the KLCI had its intra-day low reaching 1474.38, at one point losing up to 14.89 points or 1%, before rebounded to close at 1491.25. The KLCI was supported by 1474 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1498. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded 8%, with the KLCI still below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the Bollinger Bands is still showing a negative signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 16.31%, with volume staying below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This shows that the market is indeed quiet, as investors shun the stock market amid unfavorable sentiment.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded on Monday, breaking above the 30% by margin. Technical, when the Stochastic should break above 30%, it is a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical rebound. However, it was still too close to call for now.

In short, the short term downtrend for the KLCI remains intact, with the 14, 21, 31 EMA still serving as the dynamic resistance while the T1 and T2 downtrend channel is still in place.



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