ZLBT Chats

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年02月11日 / FBMKLCI 11/02/2011

综合指数 2011年 02月 11日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指数进一步下跌,以1494.52点闭市,按日下跌9.47点或0.63%,综指跌破了1498.31点的费氏线,所以1498.31点成为综指接下来的阻力水平,支持水平则落在1474.02点的费氏线。
如图所示,由于布林频带(Bollinger Bands)打开23%,而综指仍然处于布林中频带以下,所以综指继续下滑。以技术而言,综指将继续保持在下跌的格局,直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量减少24.51%,这使到成交量下跌至40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),接下来若成交量继续的减少,马股市场的交投量将步入淡静的格局,届时通常是综指出现缓慢下跌或横摆巩固的讯号。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)在零轴回弹,不过指标仍然低于30%,所以综指的短期走势仍然属于下跌的格局中,直到指标上扬突破30%为止。

总的来说,综指成份股项仍然受到抛售,所以综指继续下滑,综指更跌破了1500点的心理支持关口,更重要的是综指目前已处于14、21、31天加权移动平均线(EMA)以下,所以综指的后市有看低一线的风险,除非综指在短期能出现横摆或回弹至EMA以上。

FBM KLCI 11 February 2011
As indicated by A, the KLCI closed at 1494.52 points, falling 9.47 points or 0.63%. The KLCI broke below the 1498.31 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement and therefore, the immediate resistance is at 1498.31 while the new support is at 1474.02 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 23%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the Bollinger Bands is showing a bearish biased signal for the KLCI.
 
As indicated by B, total market volume fell 24.51%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that investors are staying on the sidelines as the market condition is unstable now. If volume should remain low, the KLCI or the market is less likely to regain its strength.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded slightly after hitting 0%. But it is still below 30%, as the short term bearish signal remains intact. The short term movement of the KLCI is expected to be weak unless the Stochastic could break above 30%.

In conclusion, the KLCI is breaking below 1500 psychological support by margin, and the technical outlook is still on the negative side, as the KLCI is below the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

No comments:

Post a Comment