Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年02月22日 / FBMKLCI 22/02/2011

综合指数 2011年 02月 22日

如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数在1525点的费氏线遇阻后，综指周二回软，再度跌破了T1的趋势线，这使到综指仍然维持在T1及T2的下降轨道内徘徊。无论如何，综指在1513点的费氏线获得扶持，以1513.63点闭市，按日下滑12.22点或0.80%。综指当前的支持维持在1513点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1525点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄3%，这显示综指仍然处于一个调整巩固的格局中，直到布林频带明显的打开为止。综指目前跌至布林中频带的水平，接下来若综指跌破布林中频带，综指在失去了这动态支持线的扶持后将有进一步转弱的风险。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量稍微减少5.40%，稍微跌破40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，接下来若马股交易量继续下降，那综指将继续维持在淡静的格局中，这是综指调整巩固的典型状态。

 

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）下跌，未能成功上扬突破70%的水平，由于指标目前已经处于50%以下了，所以综指的短期走势出现偏弱的格局，直到随机指标止跌回弹为止。此外若随机指标跌破30%，综指的短期走势则有进入跌势的风险。

适逢区域股市纷纷下跌，再加上综指在31天加权移动平均线（EMA）遇阻，综指下跌0.8%，这使到综指目前仍然处于一个下跌的格局中，综指若在短期内不能回弹上扬，综指将进一步确认形成较低的顶（Lower Highs）-综指形成跌势的确认图形，这意味着综指的后市将会看低一线。

 

FBM KLCI 22 February 2011

As indicated by A, the KLCI started falling again after touching 1525 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and it is now still below the T1 downtrend line. The KLCI closed at 1513.63, downed 12.22 points or 0.8%, and the support for the KLCI is at 1513.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 3%, as it suggests that the KLCI might still be in a consolidation. If the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the technical outlook for the KLCI would turn back to negative.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 5.4%, and it failed to hold up above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Nevertheless, if the volume should stay relatively lower, the market is less likely to pickup any strength.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic started falling, and if the Stochastic should fall below 30%, it would enter the short term bearish territory, suggesting a weakening short term movement for the KLCI.

In conclusion, the KLCI is still resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, as well as the T1 downtrend line, thus the technical outlook is on the negative side.

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