Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年02月28日 / FBMKLCI 28/02/2011

综合指数 2011年 02月 28日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数开始后下跌，综指周一的跌幅一度达14.89点或1%，惟综指精确的在1474点的费氏线获得扶持后回弹，综指以1491.25点闭市，按日微扬1.98点或0.13%。综指当前的支持水平仍然是1474点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1498点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）开始打开，虽然幅度只是8%，不算太明显，不过由于综指目前已经处于布林中频带以下了，接下来若布林频带进一步的打开，综指将有再度下跌的风险，直到综指能上扬突破布林中频带为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少16.31%，这使到成交量继续低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），显示马股缺乏交投量，这是在综指横摆巩固或走势不明朗时的典型状态。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在两日贴着0%的水平横摆后，显示综指出现短期技术超卖，所以随机指标周一回弹，并且上扬至30%的水平，这是综指出现技术反弹的讯号，不过由于随机指标并未明显突破30%的水平，所以综指的短期走势仍然属于弱势中。

总的来说，综指出现技术反弹使到综指微扬1.98点，不过综指目前始终低于14、21、31天加权移动平均线（VMA）及布林中频带，再加上综指处于下降轨道内，这表示综指整体的走势仍然是趋软的，直到综指能成功的上扬突破这些动态阻力线为止。

FBMKLCI 28 February 2011

As indicated by A, the KLCI had its intra-day low reaching 1474.38, at one point losing up to 14.89 points or 1%, before rebounded to close at 1491.25. The KLCI was supported by 1474 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1498. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded 8%, with the KLCI still below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the Bollinger Bands is still showing a negative signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 16.31%, with volume staying below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This shows that the market is indeed quiet, as investors shun the stock market amid unfavorable sentiment.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded on Monday, breaking above the 30% by margin. Technical, when the Stochastic should break above 30%, it is a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical rebound. However, it was still too close to call for now.

In short, the short term downtrend for the KLCI remains intact, with the 14, 21, 31 EMA still serving as the dynamic resistance while the T1 and T2 downtrend channel is still in place.



HAPPY TRADING

ZLBT's Morning Markets Outlook : FBMKLCI, FKLI and DJIA

FBMKLCI May Snap Losing StreakThe Malaysian stock market shed less than a point on Friday - but that was enough to extend its losing streak to four sessions, costing it more than 35 points or 2.2 percent in that span. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index remained just below the 1,490-point plateau, although now analysts are forecasting a modest rebound at the opening of trade on Monday.
The global forecast for the Asian markets is generally positive, although the upside is likely to be limited by surging oil prices and tensions in Libya. Oil companies are expected to provide support, along with technology, finance and property stocks. The European and U.S. markets finished firmly higher on Friday, and now the Asian markets are expected to follow suit.

The KLCI finished flat on Friday as softness from the financial shares and plantation stocks was pared by support from the industrials.

For the day, the index eased 0.60 points or 0.04 percent to finish at the daily low of 1,489.27 after peaking at 1,499.44. Volume was 1.38 billion shares worth 1.79 billion ringgit. There were 524 gainers and 300 decliners, with 258 stocks finishing unchanged.

Among the actives, Kuala Lumpur Kepong finished lower, while CIMB Holdings was unchanged and IOI Corporation, RHB Capital, Petronas Chemicals and YTL Corporation all ended higher.

The FBMKLCI rebounded on Friday after oil prices retraced to US$97 a barrel overnight from a 29-month high of US$103.4 as the US, Saudi Arabia and International Energy Agency gave an assurance that they can compensate for any disruption to Libyan shipments. However, the local benchmark index lost 0.6 points to close at the day's low of 1,489.27, off an early high of 1,499.44, pressured by falls in Tenaga, Maybank and KLK, as gainers led losers 524 to 300 in cautious trade which totalled 1.39 billion shares worth RM1.79 billion. The trading range last week expanded to 37.82 points, compared with 27.02 points in the previous week.

The lead from Wall Street is optimistic as stocks saw substantial gains on Friday, with easing volatility in the price of crude oil drove buying interest in the recently battered equity markets. Traders largely looked past a weaker than expected reading on fourth quarter GDP growth and a consumer sentiment reading that surprised to the upside in the U.S.

Downside bias for FKLI
THE February FBM KLCI futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower at 1,492.50 with an open interest of 10,727 contracts last week.

Consolidative sentiment continued to dominate trading last week. Volatility picked up, as did selling pressure, pushing the spot contract below 1,500 before closing the week lower at 1,492.50. However, it was a hard-fought victory for the sellers as the spot contract had rallied to a high of 1,523 early last week before finally caving in to the pressure.
The bulls' bigger worry is over the longer term as the market's weekly momentum has been unable to pick up pace. The main concern can be found in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it continues to slide further. It has been declining since the beginning of this year and has yet to find the floor at the oversold territory lines.

The RSI's predicament has been compounded by the negative crossover on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD). The spot contract has yet to turn around in the face of this double whammy despite its numerous attempts to stage a recovery.
The shorter term indicators were slightly more positive when the market closed last week. The RSI and the Commodity Channel Index have both turned upwards after a recovery from last week's low of 1,481.

Though this may entice buyers back into the market, they should be wary of a "dead cat bounce" as the bigger picture may continue to favour the shortists.

The close of the March contract at 1,482 implies that as rollover activities continue into this week, it will not be a rosy picture for the buyers as the February contract traded at a 10-point premium with one day left before its expiration.

Support this week may hold at 1,471 where the spot contract intersects the lower Bollinger band on the daily chart. This may present a better entry opportunity for interested buyers as the overall market recovery still hinges on geopolitical issues which may take time to resolve.

This week, the spot contract may still find it challenging to rejuvenate its momentum. Though the market has somewhat located some support at the current level, it will still take time for it to return to bullish mode.

Breaking the psychological 1,500 level does not signal a strong milestone. Instead, it may entice sellers into the market. Entry at key support level for could serve as a better strategy as the index futures spot contract is still consolidating with downside bias.

Technical reports

The MACD remains negative with the faster below the signal line. Both lines remain at the positive region. Meanwhile, the daily RSI and the daily CCI closed at the neutral.
Spot month February KLCI futures contract traded on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives tumbled 33.5 points, or 2.2 per cent, week-on-week to 1,482.5, deteriorating to a 6.77-point discount to the cash index, compared to the minor 1.56-point discount the previous Friday. Long liquidation and panic selling forced the bulls to cut losses on their futures trading positions.
Technical Outlook : Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,155. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 11,803 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,229 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow renews this winter's rally, the January 2008 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 12,767 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,229. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 12,389. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 11,983. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 11,803.

HAPPY TRADING

WALL STREET >>> Dow Rebound In Worst Week Of 2011

Bulls Grab 1st Win In a Week
Crude Oil Distress Dissipated
Stocks chipped away at their weekly deficits today, as crude-related distress dissipated on news that Saudi Arabia will step up to the proverbial plate. More specifically, the oil-rich nation raised production by about 8%, an industry source told Reuters, in an attempt to curb supply issues stemming from threats of a civil war in Libya. On the home front, meanwhile, the Street celebrated news that consumer confidence soared to a three-year peak in February, as well as Boeing's (BA) freshly inked $30 billion tanker deal with the U.S. Air Force. As the bullish stars seemingly aligned, the government's relatively lackluster revision to fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) remained in the background of investors' minds, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending higher for the first time in a week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,130.45) added nearly 62 points, or 0.5%, today, but failed to reclaim support at its 10-day and 20-day moving averages. Only 10 of the Dow's 30 components bucked the trend, with Microsoft (MSFT) leading the bearish minority, while Intel Corp. (INTC) and Boeing paced the 20 advancing equities with gains of more than 2% apiece. For the week, the Dow gave up 2.1%, marking its first week-over-week loss since the week ended Jan. 28.

In the same vein, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,319.88) tacked on 13.8 points, or 1.1%, but ran into a wall in the 1,320 neighborhood. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,781.05) once again fared the best of the three, advancing 43.2 points, or 1.6%. Both the SPX and COMP ended just barely north of their 20-day moving averages, but continue to stare up at their 10-day trendlines. For the week, the SPX gave up 1.7%, while the COMP shed 1.9%.
CRUDE TRADERS STILL RIGGING JUST BELOW $100 

Crude futures finished modestly higher today, but remained south of the psychologically significant $100-per-barrel marker. Lifting black gold were lingering concerns about violent protests in Libya, which many still fear could spread throughout the oil-saturated Middle East.  However, limiting oil's rise was news that Saudi Arabia boosted its crude output to calm supply-related anxiety. Against this backdrop, April-dated crude futures added 60 cents, or 0.6%, to end at $97.88 per barrel – the loftiest weekly settlement since September 2008. For the week, the front-month contract tacked on a whopping 9.1%.

GOLD SNAP 7 WINNING STREAKS
Gold futures took a respite from their rally to seven-week highs today, as easing concerns about oil supplies dampened the metal's appeal as an inflationary hedge. Furthermore, a rebound in the equities market prompted many traders to try their hand at riskier assets, as opposed to "safe havens" like gold. By the close, gold for April delivery snapped its seven-session winning streak by giving back $6.50, or 0.5%, to settle at $1,409.30 an ounce. For the week, the precious metal tacked on 1.5%.

HAPPY TRADING

ZLBT Morning Markets Round-up 25 Feb 2011

Malaysian Stocks May See Bargain Hunting

The Malaysian stock market has finished lower now in three straight trading days, declining more than 35 points or 2.2 percent in the process. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index finished just below the 1,490-point plateau, although now traders are hoping the market may find some traction when it kicks off trade on Friday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets remains fraught with uncertainty in light of tensions in the Middle East and North Africa - although many of the regional bourses have taken heavy damage already this week and are ripe for bargain hunting. Technology stocks and airlines are likely to be scooped up, while gold and oil may decline on profit taking. The European and U.S. markets finished mixed, and the Asian markets are expected to follow suit.

The KLCI finished sharply lower on Thursday, following heavy losses from the financial and plantation stocks - as well as more moderate declined among the industrials.

For the day, the index shed 21.24 points or 1.41 percent to finish at 1,489.87 after trading between 1,489.87 and 1,511.39. Volume was 2.003 billion shares worth 2.623 billion ringgit. There were 863 decliners and 116 gainers, with 154 stocks finishing unchanged.

Among the decliners, Tenaga Nasional, Malaysia Airlines, Public Bank, Sime Darby, CIMB Holdings, Kuala Lumpur Kepong and IOI Corporation all finished lower.

Wall Street provides little clarity as stocks saw a mixed close after a volatile session on Thursday, with a combination of bargain hunting and risk aversion pulling market sentiment in opposite directions. Concerns about continued Middle East protests remained a market headwind, while the U.S. economy continued to show improvement, with jobless claims slipping back below the 400,000 mark.

DJIA Trims Deficit as Crude Settles South of the Century Mark

Some attributed oil's about-face to rumors that Libyan leader Gadhafi had been shot

Stocks spent most of the session swimming in red ink today, as oil futures initially continued their run into triple-digit territory. Intensified political turmoil in Libya – the eastern part of which is now largely controlled by anti-government rebels – sent black gold as high as $103 per barrel, overshadowing surprisingly encouraging data on both jobless claims and durable goods. However, crude futures eventually cooled off in afternoon trading, reversing course to finish south of the psychologically significant century mark. Against this backdrop, the major market indexes pared their deficits in the final hours of trading, with the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite even notching a gain by the close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,068.50) found itself more than 122 points in the red – and on the south side of 12,000 for the first time in three weeks – today, but eventually trimmed its deficit to 37.3 points, or 0.3%. Twelve of the Dow's 30 blue chips ended higher, led by General Electric's (GE) 1.7% gain, while Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) paced the bearish majority with a loss of nearly 3.3%.

In the same vein, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,306.10) also chipped away at its deficit in afternoon trading, giving up just 1.3 points, or 0.1%, by the closing bell. Earlier in the session, the SPX had dipped as low as 1,294.26 – in territory not explored in three weeks. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,737.90) fared the best of the three, tacking on 14.9 points, or 0.6%, with help from Priceline.com's (PCLN) earnings-related rally. However, the tech-rich index is still sitting on a loss of more than 3.3% for the week – the worst of its peers.

Crude Falls On Rumours Gaddafi's Been Shot

After rallying as high as $103 per barrel in early trading, crude futures performed an about-face to finish in the red. While many economists attributed the reversal to positive political developments in Algeria and Saudi Arabia – neighbors of Libya – at least one news source cited unsubstantiated rumors that Muammar Gadhafi had been shot.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner likely contributed to crude's pullback, assuring the Street that substantial global oil reserves should help curb any supply disruptions. Whatever the catalyst, crude oil for April delivery finished 82 cents, or 0.8%, lower to end at $97.28 per barrel.

GOLD Attempt To Surpass Early Dec High

Gold futures settled slightly higher today, as continued turmoil in Libya amplified the metal's safe-haven appeal. However, the commodity's gains were somewhat limited, thanks to anxiety about physical demand in India, as well as easing inflationary concerns. 

"We're not seeing a broad-based inflation trend," said President Obama, speaking at a Council on Jobs and Competitiveness meeting. 

Against this backdrop, April-dated gold futures added $1.80, or 0.1%, to end at $1,415.80 an ounce – the front-month contract's best finish since Jan. 3.

HAPPY TRADING

MALAYSIA DERIVATIVES EXCHANGE >>> FBM KLCI Futures

SHARPLY LOWER

FKLI Tracks Cash Market

THE FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed sharply lower yesterday in line with the weaker cash market, dealers said.

February 2011 slipped 31 points to 1,483.5, March 2011 declined 36.5 points to 1,476.5.

June 2011 fell 36 points to 1,476 and September 2011 lost 34 points to 1,476.

Turnover, however, rose to 25,310 lots from 20,266 lots on Wednesday, while open interests was higher at 29,114 contracts from 25,217 on Wednesday.

On the cash market, the FBM KLCI lost 21.24 points to end at 1,489.87.

HAPPY TRADING

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年02月24日 / FBMKLCI 24/02/2011

综合指数 2011年 02月 24日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数精确的在T1下降趋势线遇阻，综指再度下跌，以1489.87点闭市，按日下跌21.24点或1.41%，这使到综指再度跌破了1500点的心理支持关口，综指当前的支持水平落在1480点及1474点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1498点的费氏线。

如图所示，T1的趋势线与1513点的费氏阻力线及14、21、31天加权移动平均线重叠，所以阻力也倍增，使到综指未能成功的突破这些阻力线。综指最终在布林中频带的水平闭市，所以接下来若综指继续的在阻力线以下，综指继续维持趋软走势的几率高.

如图中箭头B所示，虽然综指下跌21.24点，不过马股总成交量却反而增加18.16%，这是因为有投资者趁股价下跌的当儿买入，以求在股价反弹时获利，不过这亦同时使到价格下挫得快，加剧了跌势。接下来若综指继续下跌，成交量反而 续高扯的话，综指的后市将有进一步走低的风险。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破30%的水平，这是随机指标发出综指短期进入跌势的讯号。一般上，接下来若指标继续维持在30%以下，综指的短期走势将继续维持在下跌的格局，直到指标能成功上扬突破30%为止。

虽然随机指标跌至0%的水平显示综指短期有超卖的迹象，不过以目前的走势来看，若综指继续的保持在加权移动平均线以及布林中频带以下的话，综指的后市将继续看低一线。

FBM KLCI 24 February 2011
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the T1 downtrend line, and started falling again on Thursday, losing 21.24 points or 1.41%, to close at 1489.87 points. The KLCI is now below the 1500 level, and the next support for the KLCI is at 1480 or the 1474 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, while the immediate resistance is at 1500 or 1498 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is also serving as the dynamic resistance, and as long as the KLCI is still resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook shall remain bearish biased.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 18.16%. However, with 863 counters falling, the increased of volume actually suggests a stronger selling pressure, which will eventually dampen the market sentiment.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell below 30%, re-entering the short term bearish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is weak, and the weakening movement shall continue, until the Stochastic could break above 30%.

In conclusion, although the Stochastic is now touching 0%, which suggests an over-sold condition. However, despite the short-term over-sold condition, the market technical outlook is indeed not looking good. In short, the 14, 21, 31 EMA should give a better picture of how the KLCI is doing than other indicators for now.

HAPPTY TRADING

BURSA MALAYSIA : Pre-Market Outlook 24 Feb 2011

Malaysian Market Poised To Open Lower
The Malaysian stock market has finished lower now in back-to-back sessions, retreating nearly 15 points or 1 percent along the way. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index finished just above the 1,510-point plateau, and now investors are bracing for more selling pressure at the opening of trade on Thursday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets remains negative, due to escalating geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and North Africa. Airline stocks are predicted to lead the market lower, along with technology, retail and telecom stocks - although gold and oil may provide support. The European and U.S. markets finished in the red, and the Asian markets are also expected to track lower.

The KLCI finished barely lower, following slight losses from the financials, industrials and plantations. For the day, the index shed 2.52 points or 0.17 percent to finish at 1,511.11 after trading between 1,502.01 and 1,516.52. Volume was 1.695 billion shares worth 2.046 billion ringgit. There were 433 gainers and 386 decliners, with 274 stocks finishing unchanged.

Among the actives, Public Bank, Petronas Chemical, Digi.Com, British American Tobacco and Karambunai all finished higher, while Maybank ended lower.

The lead from Wall Street remains continues to be broadly pessimistic as stocks fell by substantial margins once again on Wednesday, with traders running to safety amid the ongoing chaos in key oil-supplying Arab nations. The concerns led to another spike in the price of oil, which hit a high of $100 a barrel. Meanwhile, a strong reading on existing home sales in the U.S. did little to dent the day's negative sentiment.

In economic news, inflation in Malaysia accelerated in January, fueled by rising costs of food and transport, data from the Department of Statistics showed on Wednesday. Inflation rose to 2.4 percent in January from 2.2 percent in December, matching economists' forecast. Food prices grew 3.7 percent year-on-year and were 1.2 percent higher compared to the previous month.

Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased 3.6 percent during the month, while non-food prices rose 1.9 percent. Transport costs were 4.3 percent higher than in January last year.

HAPPY TRADING

MALAYSIA DERIVATIVES EXCHANGE >>> FBM KLCI Futures

FKLI Reflects Steadier Cash Market

THE FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives were firmer at the close yesterday, reflecting the improving cash market.

February 2011 and June 2011 both gained 8 points each to 1,514.5 and 1,512, respectively. March 2011 added 9 points to 1,513 and September 2011 rose 5.50 points to 1,510.

Turnover stood at 20,266 lots, sharply higher than Tuesd ay ’s 12,911 lots, while interest was at 25,217 contracts, compared to 21,2119 p r e v i o u s l y.

On the cash market, the FBM KLCI was down 2.52 points to 1,511.11.

Recommendations
The 2 Head & Shoulder in the FKLI Daily Chart
provides some reasons to trade a cautious
SELL INTO STRENGTH
Keep trailing stop (TS) handy

HAPPY TRADING

ZLBT Morning Markets Round-up 23 Feb 2011

Malaysian Stocks May Follow-up Yesterdays' Losses

The Malaysian stock market on Tuesday wrote an emphatic finish to the five-day winning streak in which it had collected more than 35 points or 2.2 percent. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index finished just below the 1,515-point plateau, and now traders are bracing for further damage when the market kicks off trade on Wednesday.The global forecast for the Asian markets remains broadly negative on mounting tensions in the Middle East. Airlines are expected to remain under pressure, along with properties, financials and steel companies. The European and U.S. markets finished well into negative territory, and the Asian markets are also expected to track to the downside.

The KLCI finished modestly lower on Tuesday, as losses from the financials, industrials and airlines were pared by gains from the plantation stocks.

For the day, the index shed 12.22 points or 0.81 percent to finish at 1,513.63 after trading between 1,510.18 and 1,519.14. Volume was 1.74 billion shares worth 2.02 billion ringgit.
Among the actives, AirAsia plunged 8 percent, while Malaysian Airline System shed 2.9 percent, TH Plantations added 3.7 percent and United Plantations collected 2.9 percent.

The lead from Wall Street is brutal, although it played catch-up on the negative momentum following Monday's holiday for President's Day. Stocks saw sharp losses on Tuesday, as uncertainty regarding the stability of key countries in the Middle East undermined upbeat sentiment regarding the U.S. economy. Traders received good news in the form of the strongest reading on consumer confidence in three years amid the ongoing chaos overseas.
 

In economic news, Malaysia will on Wednesday provide January numbers for consumer prices, with the inflation rate expected to come in at 2.4 percent - up from 2.2 percent in December.
Also, Malaysia's unemployment rate increased to 3.2 percent in December from 3.1 percent in the previous month, data released by the Department of Statistics showed Tuesday. The number of jobless persons increased 8.5 percent to 391,400 from 360,900 last month.
The number of employed persons grew 4.1 percent to 11.67 million in December from 11.21 million in the preceding month. Labor force participation advanced by 2.8 percentage points to 64.5 percent from 61.7 percent in November. At the same time, the number of labor force climbed to 12.06 million in December from 11.57 million in November.

WALL STREET : Indexes Tumble As Libyan Unrest Escalate

While U.S. investors enjoyed a long weekend honoring their past leaders, citizens in Libya were trying to dethrone theirs. According to the U.N., no fewer than 250 people have been killed amid escalating protests in the nation, which sits atop the largest oil reserves in Africa. The overseas drama got the bearish ball rolling this morning, fueling fears of contagion in the Middle East, and bolstering oil prices to their highest price in more than two years. Furthermore, the political turmoil boosted the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) -- often known as the market's "fear gauge" -- to its loftiest level since late 2010. Elsewhere, Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) stoked the bearish flames, after the blue-chip conglomerate confessed to a seventh straight quarter of declining sales. The lackluster report helped to overshadow news of a stronger-than-anticipated rebound in consumer confidence, and contributed to the Dow Jones Industrial Average's worst single-session slump since Nov. 12.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,212.79) blazed a steady path lower today, swallowing a loss of 178.5 points, or 1.4%, by the time the bell blissfully sounded. In fact, only oil concerns Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM), as well as Kraft Foods (KFT), skirted the red, while Alcoa (AA) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) led the bearish majority with losses of more than 4% apiece. While the blue chip barometer maintained its perch atop the 12,200 level, the index finished the session south of its 10-day trendline for the first time since Jan. 31.

In the same vein, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,315.44) gave up 27.6 points, or 2.1%, by the close, marking its first settlement beneath its 10-day moving average in more than three weeks. Nevertheless, the SPX found a foothold in the form of its 20-day trendline, which hasn't been breached on a daily closing basis since Jan. 28. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,756.42) fared the worst of the three, giving up 77.5 points, or 2.7%, by the time the dust settled. In addition, the tech-rich index surrendered not only its 10-day and 20-day moving averages – which hasn't happened since late January – but also its footing atop the round-number 2,800 level.

Oil Prices Gush 8.6% On Disruption Worries

Crude futures skyrocketed today, as fatal protests against long-time Libyan leader Col. Muammar Gaddafi fueled fears of disrupted supplies.
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Already, Western oil companies have started to evacuate nonessential personnel from the nation, which not only sits atop the largest oil reserves in Africa, but is also a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The escalating violence in Libya kept oil prices elevated near 2½-year highs. Most oil ports and refineries have shut down in Libya, the world’s 12th largest oil exporter, according to traders.

At the same time, international oil companies were evacuating their staff from the country in a move that executives and analysts said would probably lead to a sharp drop in oil output.

Against this backdrop – and thanks to concerns that protesters in Yemen and Bahrain could follow suit – March-dated crude soared $7.37, or 8.6%, to end its final session at $93.57 per barrel, marking the front-month contract's loftiest settlement since October 2008. The more actively traded April contract – which assumed front-month status after the close – added $5.71, or 6.4%, to end at $95.42 per barrel.

Gold Tops $1400 On Middle East, North African Turmoils

Gold futures also powered higher today, as the escalating violence in Libya bolstered the metal's safe-haven status. Furthermore, soaring oil prices amplified fears of rising global inflation, which heightened the malleable metal's appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

The revolt in Libya is the latest in a spate of political uprisings across the Mideast and North Africa in recent weeks. Fierce clashes between protesters and security forces in several cities have resulted in the deaths of at least 233 people, according to Human Rights Watch, which cited hospital sources in the North African nation.

Information about the situation in Libya was very difficult to verify, because of the severe restrictions on foreign media. Protesters are seeking an end to the decades-long regime of Moammar Gadhafi, whose son warned in a TV speech that Libya could be engulfed by civil war, according to reports.

“Investors are increasingly seeking a ‘safe haven’ again amid the growing unrest in the Mideast, Secondly, the price is being driven by speculative financial investors, who expanded their net long positions in gold by 9% last week," said a gold dealer.

By the close, gold for April delivery gained $12.50, or 0.9%, to end at $1,401.10 an ounce – the precious metal's best finish since Jan. 3.

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年02月22日 / FBMKLCI 22/02/2011

综合指数 2011年 02月 22日

如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数在1525点的费氏线遇阻后，综指周二回软，再度跌破了T1的趋势线，这使到综指仍然维持在T1及T2的下降轨道内徘徊。无论如何，综指在1513点的费氏线获得扶持，以1513.63点闭市，按日下滑12.22点或0.80%。综指当前的支持维持在1513点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1525点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄3%，这显示综指仍然处于一个调整巩固的格局中，直到布林频带明显的打开为止。综指目前跌至布林中频带的水平，接下来若综指跌破布林中频带，综指在失去了这动态支持线的扶持后将有进一步转弱的风险。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量稍微减少5.40%，稍微跌破40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，接下来若马股交易量继续下降，那综指将继续维持在淡静的格局中，这是综指调整巩固的典型状态。

 

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）下跌，未能成功上扬突破70%的水平，由于指标目前已经处于50%以下了，所以综指的短期走势出现偏弱的格局，直到随机指标止跌回弹为止。此外若随机指标跌破30%，综指的短期走势则有进入跌势的风险。

适逢区域股市纷纷下跌，再加上综指在31天加权移动平均线（EMA）遇阻，综指下跌0.8%，这使到综指目前仍然处于一个下跌的格局中，综指若在短期内不能回弹上扬，综指将进一步确认形成较低的顶（Lower Highs）-综指形成跌势的确认图形，这意味着综指的后市将会看低一线。

 

FBM KLCI 22 February 2011

As indicated by A, the KLCI started falling again after touching 1525 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and it is now still below the T1 downtrend line. The KLCI closed at 1513.63, downed 12.22 points or 0.8%, and the support for the KLCI is at 1513.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 3%, as it suggests that the KLCI might still be in a consolidation. If the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the technical outlook for the KLCI would turn back to negative.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 5.4%, and it failed to hold up above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Nevertheless, if the volume should stay relatively lower, the market is less likely to pickup any strength.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic started falling, and if the Stochastic should fall below 30%, it would enter the short term bearish territory, suggesting a weakening short term movement for the KLCI.

In conclusion, the KLCI is still resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, as well as the T1 downtrend line, thus the technical outlook is on the negative side.

HAPPY TRADING

WALL STREET : Bulls Score 3rd Straight Weekly Win

Despite global uncertainty, the major market indexes elbowed higher

Dow mark best 3-week performance since August 2010

Traders today shrugged off another monetary-tightening measure out of China, as Beijing once again raised its capital reserve requirement for banks. Unfazed, the major market indexes jumped higher out of the gate, extending a recent string of multi-year highs. However, the bulls tempered their enthusiasm around the halfway point of the session, with traders leery of leaving too much cash on the table over the long holiday weekend -- particularly as the Group of 20 finance ministers assembled in France for a two-day meeting to address global economic concerns. Wall Street also kept a wary eye on sociopolitical unrest in the Middle East, as violent anti-government protests in Bahrain stretched into their fifth day. The net result was a day of modest gains for U.S. equities, with stocks closing the door on their third straight winning week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,391.25) fared the best of the three major indexes, collecting a gain of 73.1 points, or 0.6%. Only nine of the 30 blue chips sat out the rally, with Alcoa (AA) leading the laggards and Coca-Cola (KO) finishing flat. Meanwhile, a robust sales report helped propel Caterpillar (CAT) to the top of the heap. The Dow finished just a stone's throw from its new two-year peak of 12,391.29, and ended the week on a healthy gain of about 1%.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,343.01) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,833.95) spent plenty of time on both sides of breakeven. The SPX tagged an early two-year high of 1,344.07 before settling for a daily advance of only 2.6 points, or 0.2%. Likewise, the COMP climbed to a new three-year best of 2,840.51 -- its highest price since October 2007 -- but pared its gains by the close, eking out a positive finish by just 2.4 points, or 0.08%. The SPX added 1% for the week, while the COMP rose 0.9%.

Crude Futures Slip Ahead Of Month End Expiration
Front-month crude futures swallowed a modest loss today, despite ongoing turmoil in the oil-rich Middle East. However, the more active April contract notched a slim gain, suggesting that traders might simply be adjusting their portfolios ahead of expiration.

Crude-oil futures gave up the bulk of early gains as investors grew cautious ahead of an upcoming contract expiration and a long holiday weekend that could involve more violent protests in Bahrain, Yemen and Libya.

“There’s all this uncertainty going on with the Middle East. A lot of traders, instead of going long oil, are just cutting their positions and kind of letting go,” said a senior commodities analyst.

Crude oil for March delivery shed 16 cents, or 0.2%, to end at $86.20 per barrel. Meanwhile, April-dated crude climbed 87 cents, or 1%, to settle at $89.71 per barrel. On a weekly basis, oil futures rose roughly 0.6%.

Gold Rises On Safe Haven Demands
On the other hand, a strong underpinning of safe-haven demand propelled gold to its fifth straight positive session. Gold for April delivery ended the day up $3.50, or 0.3%, at $1,388.60 per ounce, bringing its weekly gain to 2.1%. However, silver was the real standout in the metals market today. The March contract gained 73 cents to settle at $32.296 per ounce, after tagging its highest price in more than three decades amid hopes for improving demand.

Technical Analysis : DJIA 19 Feb 2011
The Dow closed higher on Friday as it extends it's recent rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

If the Dow extends this rally, the January 2008 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 12,767 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,123 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,375. Second resistance is the January 2008 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 12,767. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,258. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,123.

WALL STREET >>> Levels to Watch in Trading:

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,391.25) - support at 10,500; resistance at 13,000

S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,343.01) - support at 1,100; resistance at 1,400

Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,833.95) - support at 2,400; resistance at 2,850

HAPPY TRADING

ZLBT Morning Markets Round-up 18 Feb 2011

Muted Movements Predicted For KL Stocks

The Malaysian stock market has finished higher now in three straight sessions, collecting more than 15 points or 1 percent in the process. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index finished just below the 1,510-point plateau, and now analysts are expecting the market to hold steady in that neighborhood when it opens on Friday.
The global forecast for the Asian markets is mixed with a touch of upside following conflicting economic data from the United States. Oil stocks are likely to provide support, as are the properties and steel companies - while financials and technology stocks may see mild selling. The European markets finished mixed and the U.S. bourses ended slightly higher, and the Asian markets are tipped to split the difference.

The KLCI finished slightly higher on Thursday, nudged into the green by gains from the financials and industrials - although selling from the plantation stocks limited the upside.

In economic news, Malaysia is on Friday scheduled to release gross domestic product numbers for the fourth quarter of 2010. GDP is expected to rise 4.4 percent on year following the 5.3 percent annual expansion in the third quarter.

The lead from Wall Street is cautiously optimistic as stocks were able to record modest gains on Thursday, with the strongest reading out of the Philadelphia-area manufacturing sector in seven years helping to overshadow another lackluster jobs report and consumer price data showing shades of inflation.

DJIA Defeats 12,300 on Bargain Hunting, Energy Rally >>> It was a rough start on the Street today, as traders scoffed at a larger-than-anticipated increase in first-time unemployment filings. In addition, the Commerce Department said consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in more than a year last month, intensifying widespread inflationary concerns. Nevertheless, investors eventually reached for their rose-colored glasses, as broad-market bargain hunters stepped in around midday. Furthermore, a healthy reading on Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity helped to fan the bullish flames, while escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East bolstered energy-related equities. Against this backdrop, stocks spent the afternoon blazing a path into the black, with all three major market indexes exploring new-high territory by the bell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,318.14) found itself flirting with a 30-point deficit in early trading, but eventually reversed course to tag a new two-plus-year high of 12,331.31. By the close, the blue chip barometer tacked on nearly 30 points, or 0.2%, to finish north of the 12,300 level for the first time since June 13, 2008. Twenty of the Dow's 30 components ended higher, led by Coca-Cola Co. (KO) and DuPont (DD), while American Express (AXP) paced the nine decliners with a loss of more than 2.3%. The session was a wash, however, for The Walt Disney Company (DIS), which ended at breakeven.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,340.43) settled just a stone's throw from its new multi-year acme of 1,341.50, advancing 4.1 points, or 0.3%, to end atop the 1,340 level for the first session since June 19, 2008. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,831.58) rallied as high as 2,835.20 – a level not explored since November 2007 – before settling on a slightly slimmer gain of 6 points, or 0.2%.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : Dow Jones Industrial Average 18/02/2011  >>> The Dow closed higher on Thursday and above weekly resistance crossing at 12,289 as it extends this winter's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this winter's rally, the January 2008 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 12,767 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,099 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 12,324. Second resistance is the January 2008 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 12,767. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,232. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,099.

Crude Futures Rises On Heightened Bahrain Tensions

Crude futures finished at their loftiest level in a week today, as lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to fuel supply concerns. More specifically, a fatal clash between police and protesters in Bahrain, as well as expectations for a massive antigovernment protest in the country's capital tomorrow, exacerbated jitters stemming from reports of two Iranian warships en route to the Suez Canal. Against this backdrop – and thanks, in part, to a weaker dollar – March-dated crude oil futures added $1.37, or 1.6%, to end at $86.36 per barrel.

Gold Glitters At 5-week High >>> Gold futures also benefited from unrest in the Middle East, which – along with discouraging jobless data – bolstered safe-haven demand for the malleable metal. In addition, reports of rising consumer prices heightened gold's appeal as an inflationary hedge. As a result, gold for April delivery tacked on $10, or 0.7%, to settle at $1,385.10 an ounce – the front-month contract's best finish since Jan. 13. Elsewhere in the metals markets, March-dated silver futures touched a new 31-year high of $31.57 a troy ounce.

HAPPY TRADING