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Thursday, June 3, 2010

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS > Composite Index 02/06/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 06月 02日

Composite Index 02/06/2010
As indicated by A, the KLCI was resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band again, and ended lower. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as a dynamic resistance for the KLCI.


Resistance is at 1287 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 1272 (61.8% Automatic Fibonacci Retracement)

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 14%, suggesting that the KLCI is likely to consolidate, and technically, the consolidation is expected to continue until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 10.4%, while volume remains below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is indeed quiet, as investors' confidence is relatively lower.


Therefore, a lower volume generally suggests a lack of fresh inflow of capital, thus not easy to offset the market selling pressure.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic failed to break above 50%, and therefore, suggesting that the KLCI has failed to pick up some strength for the short term. Technically, the Stochastic has to break above and remain above 70% level, to signal a short term bullish movement.

In conclusion, the KLCI is still resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the immediate technical outlook is still weak, while likely to consolidate. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the KLCI staying below the Bollinger Middle Band, more downside movement is expected for the KLCI.

综合指数 2010年 06月 02日
如图所示,富时综合指数仍然在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)受到一定的阻力,所以综指精确的在布林中频带遇阻而回软。综指当前的阻力水平仍然是布林中频带及1287点的费氏线,支持水平则处于1272点的61.8%费氏回归线。


如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)继续收窄(-14%),这显示综指目前的走势是属于调整巩固中,一般上综指将维持目前的盘整格局,直到布林频带重新明显的打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量进一步减少10.4%,这使到成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这是市场淡静的现象;无论如何,在综指盘整时,成交量低于40天是正常的,这是由于投资者在没有新的指引下,暂时按兵不动,这使到市场交投缺缺。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)下滑,所以仍然未能超越50%的水平,这是综指短期走势未能成功转为上扬的迹象。一般上,随机指标是必须上扬突破50%以及70%,那综指的短期走势才能出现上扬的趋势。

由于综指在布林中频带遇阻,所以综指仍然未能突破此动态阻力,这显示综指仍然维持趋软的格局,不过布林频带收窄显示综指正处于调整巩固的格局,所以接下来只要综指能上扬突破布林中频带,那综指还是有望出现转强的趋势。无论如何,布林频带收窄也表示综指目前正在盘整中,所以新的趋势只在布林频带重新明显打开时才能获得确认。

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