ZLBT Chats

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : 综合指数 2010年 06月 15日/ Composite Index 15/06/2010

综合指数 2010年 06月 15日
富时综合指数微扬1.21点,以1298.37点闭市,综指虽然已处于1297点的费氏阻力线以上,不过综指仍然在1300点的心理阻力水平遇阻,所以1300点的整点阻力水平成为接下来的阻力,支持水平则是1284点的费氏线。


虽然综指近日来的涨幅不大,不过综指在14、21及31天的加权移动平均线(EMA)阻力区域内缓缓的上扬(参考箭头A),这表示综指正尝试突破此动态阻力区域,若综指能成功上扬突破14、21及31天EMA的话,那综指将有望摆脱跌势,恢复上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量只上扬1.9%,所以成交量仍然属于低迷,成交量继续低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这显示市场目前依然淡静,这是综指横摆巩固及酝酿新趋势的典型状态。

如图中箭头C所示,虽然综指横摆巩固,不过随机指标(Stochastic)则可以维持在70%以上,这显示综指的短期走势依然偏强,此短期的偏强情形将能一直维持到随机指标跌破70%为止。

综指目前正在试探31天EMA的阻力,若综指能上扬突破此阻力,综指将能摆脱14、21及31天EMA的动态阻力区域,届时若布林频带亦能同时打开,那综指将有望恢复上扬的趋势。

Composite Index 15/06/2010
On Tuesday, the FBM KLCI gained 1.21 points to close at 1298.37 points. Despite breaking above the 1297 level by margin, the KLCI is still capped by the 1300 psychological resistance level. Therefore, the 1300 level is still the resistance for now, while the support is at 1284 level.

Although the KLCI recent movement was rather flat, it has slowly regaining its position at the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and testing this important dynamic resistance. If the KLCI could break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, there is a good chance that the KLCI would regain its strength.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.9%, with volume remains below the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, this shows that the market is indeed quiet, as inflow of fresh capital is still low. Therefore, the buying interest is still low, thus unable to off set the selling pressure.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. Therefore, the short term movement of the KLCI is still positive.

In conclusion, the KLCI is testing the important 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance. If the KLCI should break above this dynamic resistance, together with the Bollinger Bands re-expanding, the KLCI could resume its bullish movement.

No comments:

Post a Comment