TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : Composite Index 16/06/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 06月 16日

Composite Index 16/06/2010
As shown on the chart above, the FBM KLCI broke above the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the 1300 psychological level. The KLCI had its intra-day high reaching 1312.1 points but profit taking pulled down the KLCI, giving up its earlier gains, to close at its opening level, up only 4.76 points or 0.4%. Support for the KLCI is at 1297 and 1300 level, while the resistances are at 1309 followed by 1325 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by A, despite the KLCI breaking above 1300 level, it formed a Gravestone Doji Candlestick pattern, suggesting some stronger selling pressure. Therefore, the KLCI bullish signal is yet to be confirmed.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 29.5%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market participation is still low, thus insufficient to sustain the KLCI gains.

As indicated by C, despite the KLCI ended higher, the Stochastic falls, as a result of the long upper shadow of the Gravestone Doji. Nevertheless, the Stochastic is still above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

In conclusion, the KLCI immediate outlook is still on the positive side, as it is now above the 14, 21, 31 EMA. However, it is likely to face some strong selling pressure.

综合指数 2010年 06月 16日
如图所示，富时大马综合指数周三成功上扬突破了14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA）的动态阻力线，并上扬突破1300的心理水平。综指一度上扬至1312.1点的全日最高点，惟午盘后出现套利活动，使到综指回软至开市的水平，按日上扬4.76点或0.4%。综指目前的支持水平是1296点的费氏线及1300点的心理支持水平，阻力水平则是1309点的费氏线及1325点的费氏线。

如图中箭头A所示，虽然综指上扬突破1300点大关，但是却因为套利活动而形成一个墓碑多智（Gravestone Doji）的阴阳烛，这表示综指目前遇上较强的卖压，所以综指转强的讯号仍然有待进一步的确认。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加29.5%，但始终未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA），这表示马股目前的交投仍然属于低迷，所以综指还未获得理想的转强条件。无论如何，若成交量能继续增加，并上扬突破40天的成交量平均值，那将有助于综指转强。。

如图中箭头C所示，综指虽然收高，但随机指标（Stochastic）却下滑，这是综指墓碑多智的上影线（Upper Shadow）所致。无论如何，由于随机指标仍然处于70%水平以上，这表示综指短期仍然处于强势中，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止，届时便是综指短期技术调整的讯号。

总的来说，综指虽然上扬突破1300的心理水平，但却遇上强大的套利卖压，所以综指未能大举上扬。无论如何，接下来若综指能继续维持在14、21、31天的EMA以上，那综指仍然有恢复涨势的希望。