Weekly Market Analysis 04/06/2010For the week ended on the 4th of June, 2010, the KLCI rebounded a total of 25.23 points or 2%, with a weekly high of 1297.75 and a weekly low of 1271.55 points, total volume was 3,328,740,800 shares, downed 2%.
Main Chart:
As indicated by A, the KLCI breaks above the 1287 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, which is the 50% Fibonacci Retracement line. Therefore, the immediate support for the KLCI is at 1287 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1300 to 1302 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
Volume:
As indicated by B, total market volume was still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market is still lightly participated, and it also implies that the investors' confidence is still low.
Bollinger Bands:
shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands is still contracting, suggesting that the KLCI direction is unclear while it is also preparing for a new movement. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook is likely to be slightly on the positive side. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expand, with the KLCI still above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI is expected to pick up some strength.
MACD:The MACD histogram was basically rising, forming a Rounding Bottom, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is improving. If the MACD histogram should break above the zero level, the improvement is expected to carry on, until it should form a Rounding Top.
RSI:
The RSI rebounded last week, breaking above 30%, breaking away from the mid term bearish territory. However, the RSI has not broken above 70%, thus the mid term movement of the KLCI has not picked up any strength yet.
Stochastic:
The Stochastic is now above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. Therefore, this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is on the positive side. The positive short term movement is expected to carry on until the Stochastic should break below 70%.
In a Nut Shell:
The short term movement has improved with the KLCI breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band. However, the Bollinger Bands has not re-expanded, thus giving no bullish signal yet. Nevertheless, more volume is needed for the market to gather its bullish conditions, or else, any rally with thin volume is likely to be a weak one.
每周技术分析 2010年06月4日
富时综合指数上周开始挂1276.43点，全周最高水平是1297.75点，最低则是1271.55点，综指最终以1294.39点闭市，按周上扬25.23点或2%，全周的总成交量为33亿2874万800股，按周减少2%.
The RSI rebounded last week, breaking above 30%, breaking away from the mid term bearish territory. However, the RSI has not broken above 70%, thus the mid term movement of the KLCI has not picked up any strength yet.
Stochastic:
The Stochastic is now above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. Therefore, this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is on the positive side. The positive short term movement is expected to carry on until the Stochastic should break below 70%.
In a Nut Shell:
The short term movement has improved with the KLCI breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band. However, the Bollinger Bands has not re-expanded, thus giving no bullish signal yet. Nevertheless, more volume is needed for the market to gather its bullish conditions, or else, any rally with thin volume is likely to be a weak one.
每周技术分析 2010年06月4日富时综合指数上周开始挂1276.43点，全周最高水平是1297.75点，最低则是1271.55点，综指最终以1294.39点闭市，按周上扬25.23点或2%，全周的总成交量为33亿2874万800股，按周减少2%.
主要指标－图形
综指上周一度在1287点的50%费氏回归线遇阻，随后在买盘涌入下，综指突破1287点，成功的站稳在1287点以上（参考箭头A），所以1287点成为综指接下来的支持水平，阻力水平则是1302点的38.2%费氏回归线，这与1300点的整点心理阻力水平相近，所以形成了阻力区域。
布林频带
如图所示，布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）接近1287点的费阻力氏线，所以综指上周曾在布林中频带遇阻，惟综指在试探了三日后，综指终于成功突破布林中频带，这使到综指有望继续转强。无论如何，布林频带（Bollinger Band）目前仍然属于收窄的格局，所以综指转强的讯号并未获得确认。
技术指标
成交量
如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量上周持续低于40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示投资者仍然对综指的后市信心不足，接下来若综指开始出现转强的走势，成交量的增加至40天的平均值，那综指上扬的趋势在足够的承接力量下，将有望走得更高。
平均乖离
综指上周一度在1287点的50%费氏回归线遇阻，随后在买盘涌入下，综指突破1287点，成功的站稳在1287点以上（参考箭头A），所以1287点成为综指接下来的支持水平，阻力水平则是1302点的38.2%费氏回归线，这与1300点的整点心理阻力水平相近，所以形成了阻力区域。
布林频带
如图所示，布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）接近1287点的费阻力氏线，所以综指上周曾在布林中频带遇阻，惟综指在试探了三日后，综指终于成功突破布林中频带，这使到综指有望继续转强。无论如何，布林频带（Bollinger Band）目前仍然属于收窄的格局，所以综指转强的讯号并未获得确认。
技术指标
成交量如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量上周持续低于40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示投资者仍然对综指的后市信心不足，接下来若综指开始出现转强的走势，成交量的增加至40天的平均值，那综指上扬的趋势在足够的承接力量下，将有望走得更高。
平均乖离
平均乖离（MACD）的振荡指标（Histogram）上周继续上扬，完成圆底（Rounding Bottom）的讯号，如今振荡指标处于零轴左右的水平，这显示综指目前的后市有待进一步的演变；一般上，若振荡指标接下来继续在正值区域上扬，那综指的短期走势将有望继续转强。
胜图强弱指标
胜图强弱指标（RSI）上周回弹至30%以上，这显示综指的中期走势开始摆脱下跌的趋势，无论如何，胜图强弱指标接下来必须继续上扬，并且突破70%，那综指才有望再度进入中期涨势里。
随机指标
随机指标（Stochastic）上周突破30%的水平，随后随机指标更上扬进入70%以上的短期上扬趋势区域内（参考箭头C），这显示综指的短期走势上扬以及进入涨势，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。
总结
综指上周成功的上扬突破布林中频带，所以综指开始转强，惟布林频带上周还是维持收窄的格局，所以综指上扬的趋势未能获得确认。接下来只要综指继续保持在布林中频带以上，那当布林频带出现明显的打开时，综指将有望确认形成一个上扬的趋势，接下来若综指上扬的趋势能获得成交量增加的配合，那综指上扬的趋势将更稳健及持久。
胜图强弱指标
胜图强弱指标（RSI）上周回弹至30%以上，这显示综指的中期走势开始摆脱下跌的趋势，无论如何，胜图强弱指标接下来必须继续上扬，并且突破70%，那综指才有望再度进入中期涨势里。
随机指标
随机指标（Stochastic）上周突破30%的水平，随后随机指标更上扬进入70%以上的短期上扬趋势区域内（参考箭头C），这显示综指的短期走势上扬以及进入涨势，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。
总结
综指上周成功的上扬突破布林中频带，所以综指开始转强，惟布林频带上周还是维持收窄的格局，所以综指上扬的趋势未能获得确认。接下来只要综指继续保持在布林中频带以上，那当布林频带出现明显的打开时，综指将有望确认形成一个上扬的趋势，接下来若综指上扬的趋势能获得成交量增加的配合，那综指上扬的趋势将更稳健及持久。
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