Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 02-10-2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-10-02

FBM KLCI 02 October 2012

Since rebounding from 1600, the KLCI has been rising for the 6^th days. On Tuesday, the KLCI closed at 1651.03 points, gaining 7.72 points or 0.47%. As indicated by A, the KLCI is approaching the 1655 historical high, while its support is at 1625.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 0.66%, however, it is still unable to break above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the market participation relatively still quiet, and also implying that investors are still not feeling confident about the market.

 

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, and still rising, after breaking above 70% on last Friday. This suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is bullish biased.

 

In conclusion, although the short-term movement of the KLCI is positive, it has not resumed its previous uptrend as it is still capped under 1655. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the immediate technical outlook is on the positive side.

 

富时大马综合指数 2012-10-02

富时大马综合指数自1600点反弹以来，至今已经连续上扬了第6天。综指周二上扬7.72点或0.47%，以1651.03点挂收。如图中箭头A所示，综指即将要试探1655点的历史高峰阻力水平，支持水平落在1625点。

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加了0.66%，成交量还未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA）的水平。以技术而言，马股目前的交投还是属于淡静的，这继续暗示着投资者对马股的信心还是不强。

 

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）自上周五突破70%水平后继续上扬，目前继续处于短期强势区域里。以技术而言，只要随机指标能维持在70%水平以上，那综指短期的走势将还是维持在偏强的格局中。

 

总的来说，综指短期走势虽然偏强，但是却还不至于表示综指将能恢复之前的上升趋势。这是因为综指还未能突破1655点的阻力水平。无论如何，由于综指已经处于14、21、31天EMA以上，因此目前的技术展望是处于正面的。

 

祝你好运

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 25/09/2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-09-25

FBM KLCI 25 Sept 2012

On Tuesday, the KLCI opened at 1611.82 points, 0.56 points lower than yesterday's closing. Soon after opening, the KLCI slipped 9.29 points to its daily low of 1603.09 point, but as the KLCI is nearing its 1600 support level, the KLCI started to rebound, lifted by heavy weighted bluechips. At the close, the KLCI ended at 1618.58 points, gaining 6.2 points or 0.38%. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1625 as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance, while the support is still at 1600, as indicated by A.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 19.61%, but volume is still below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the market is still relatively quiet, also implying that investors are still not feeling confident about the market.

 

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded at 30%, thus avoided entering the short-term bearish territory. For now, the Stochastic is showing a short-term neutral signal.

 

In conclusion, the KLCI tested the 1600 level again, and fortunately it rebounded from the 1600 level, thus avoiding forming a downtrend once again. However, since the KLCI is currently below the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance, the immediate technical outlook is turning cautious.

 

富时大马综合指数 2012-09-25

综指周二以1611.82 点开市，比昨天的收市低了0.56点。综指开市后因一度下滑 9.29 点，至1603.09点的全日最低，惟在接近1600点整数心理支持水平时获得扶持而回弹，甚至把扭转局势，使得综指以1618.58点挂收，按日上扬6.20点或0.38%。综指目前的阻力依然是1625点及14、21、31天EMA的动态阻力线。支持水平则仍然是1600点的关口。（参考图中箭头A）

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量比昨天稍微增加了19.61%，不过成交量还是未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA）的水平。这表示市场的交投还未达到活跃的水平，同时继续暗示着投资者对马股的信心还未完全恢复。

 

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在30%的水平反弹，因此避开了陷入短期弱势的格局。目前的随机指标显示着短期中立的讯号，直到随机指标上扬突破70% 或 下跌跌破30%水平为止。

 

总的来说，综指再次试探1600点大关，所幸的综指继续在1600点获得扶持而回弹，因此再一次的避开了跌势的形成。不过，由于综指目前继续处于14、21、31天EMA动态阻力线以下，因此目前的技术展望是处于谨慎的状态。

 

祝你好运

Technicalities FBM KLCI 18 Sept 2012 >>> Tough to Crack 1,655 Record High

Strong rebound last week reverse the recent sell-off from a fresh three month low

Week-on-week, the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) gained 18.4 points, or 1.13% to 1,642.95. Average daily traded volume and value shrank to 946.5 million shares and RM1.7 billion, compared to the 1.33 billion shares and RM1.7 billion average the previous week.

FKLI Spot month September KLCI futures contract traded on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Berhad climbed 23.5 points or 1.46% last week to 1,638.5, reducing the discount to the cash index to 4.45 points, compared to the 9.55-point discount the previous week, as the futures market undertone stayed cautious despite the strong rebound.

 

The daily slow stochastic indicator for the FBM KLCI has climbed into the neutral zone after

triggering a buy signal last week (Chart 1), but the weekly indicator hooked down from the

overbought region following the previous week’s sell signal. The 14-day Relative Strength Index

(RSI) recovered to a more bullish reading at 54.99, while the 14-week RSI hooked up for a reading at 61.09 as of last Friday.

The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trend indicator’s trigger line has

turned upwards, signaling improving upside momentum, but the weekly MACD just flashed a sell signal (Chart 2). Meantime, the +DI and –DI lines on the 14-day Directional Movement Index (DMI) trend indicator are contracting towards each other, poised to reverse last week’s bearish signal.

 

Conclusion

Despite the strong rebound seen on blue chips late last week, the weaker than usual buying momentum and discount on the futures market implies upward momentum could stall as the index climbs higher towards the record high, as market undertone remained cautious. While short-term technical momentum has turned positive, note that weekly indicators remained bearish given the sell signals on weekly stochastics and MACD indicators.

Hence, it would be challenging for the index to overcome the 1,655.49 record peak of 3 Sept this
week (Chart 3), unless buying momentum and external sentiment improves further. In any case, higher upside hurdles upon a breakout would be at 1,660 and 1,672, the respective 1.618 and 1.764 Fibonacci Projection targets of the 1,609 high of 3 April to the 1,526 low of 18 May, with 1,691 as the one-to-one projection target. Immediate support is revised upwards to 1,636, the 50-day moving average, followed by 1,609, the 3 April peak, with better support at 1,591, which is the 50% retracement of the run-up from 1,526.6 low on 18 May to the 1,655.49 peak of 3 Sept.

HAPPY TRENDING

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI12-09-2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-09-12

富时大马综合指数 2012-09-12

如图所示，富时大马综合指数周三盘中一度回弹，但是由于蓝筹股项继续受到卖压，特别是亚洲航空与UEM置地，使得综指只能以1613.78点挂收，按日微跌0.46点。如图中箭头A所示，14、21、31天EMA是综指目前的动态阻力线。另外，综指阻力落在1625点，支持则是1600点的整数点。

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周三减少了16.3%，使得成交量继续处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下。这表示马股整体上的交投是处于淡静的。以技术而言，若成交量继续偏低的话，那马股一般上都难以转强。

 

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）到目前为止还是处于30%水平以下的短期弱势区域里。这表示综指短期还未能摆脱偏弱的格局。若随机指标能上扬突破30%水平，那综指短期有望出现技术反弹。

 

总的来说，综指周二精确在1600点整数点回弹后，周三大致上在窄幅中波动。不过，全日上扬股项有409只，超越下跌股的292只，这暗示者有许多股项都开始出现回弹的迹象。只不过这反弹的迹象还未反映在综指上。无论如何，综指会否形成熊市目前还是言之过早。

 

FBM KLCI 12 Sept 2012

On Wednesday, the KLCI had some early gains, but the strong selling pressure in blue chips pushes the KLCI lower, especially AIRASIA and UEMLAND. At the close, the KLCI fell 0.46 of a point to 1613.78 points. As indicated by A, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is serving as the dynamic resistance. Immediate resistance for the KLCI is at 1625 and the support is at 1600 mark.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 16.3%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This shows that the market is indeed quiet, as investors are being very cautious, while reluctant to take up positions. Generally, without sufficient participation, the market as a whole is less likely to pick up its strength.

 

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains below 30%, in the short-term bearish territory. This suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is still on the weaker side. If the Stochastic should break above 30%, it would be a signal suggesting a technical rebound.

 

In conclusion, after precisely rebounding from 1600, the KLCI was fluctuating in a narrow range on Wednesday. However, the score board is showing some improvement with gainers outnumbering loser, 409 to 292. However, this minor improvement is not yet reflected in the KLCI performance. Nonetheless, it is still too early to call for any bearish or downtrend movement for the KLCI.

 

HAPPY TRENDING

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HAPPY TRADING

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 10-09-2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-09-10

FBM KLCI 10 Sept 2012

As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI had its early gains up to 4.64 points, but due to the strong selling pressure in blue chips, the KLCI was pulled down, thus unable to break above the 1625 level, closing at 1621.04 points, downed 3.51 points. Therefore, the immediate resistance for the KLCI is at 1625 while the 14, 21, 31 EMA is serving as the dynamic resistance. Next support is at 1600 psychological level.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 23.81%, with volume clearly below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the market is quiet, as investors are unwilling to take up new positions. Generally, it is normal to have lower volume when the market in a whole is falling, but of course, without sufficient participation, the market is less likely to pick up its strength.

 

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains below 30%, despite rebounding from 0% last week. This suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is negative.

 

In conclusion, after falling below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend of the KLCI was temporary interrupted. Although the KLCI pulled back and rebounded a little after its short-term over-sold condition last week, the strong selling pressure is preventing the KLCI from rising further. Nevertheless, we have yet to see the formation of a downtrend.

 

富时大马综合指数 2012-09-10

如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数虽然一度上扬4.64点，惟蓝筹股项继续受到套利的卖压，使得综指未能突破1625点的水平，以1621.04点挂收，按日下跌3.51点。因此，1625点正是综指目前的阻力水平。此外，图中所示的14、21、31天EMA也转为综指目前的动态阻力线。综指支持落在1600点的心理整数水平。

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减少23.81%，成交量明显的减退，并处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下。以技术而言，当综指（或马股整体上）下跌时成交量出现萎缩是一个很正常的现象。不过，若成交量继续处于偏低的话，那市场一般上也难以转强。另外，周一

 

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）上周跌至0%水平后反弹，不过至今还是未能突破30%的水平。这表示综指短期的走势目前是处于弱势中。

 

总的来说，综指自失守14、21、31天EMA后，涨势便受到了破坏。综指上周一度出现短期超卖的现象，而随后出现拉回效应而稍微回弹。但由于蓝筹股项继续受到强大卖压拖累，综指暂时未能转强。无论如何，虽然如此，综指亦还未出现形成跌势的特征。

 

祝你好运

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 07-09-2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-09-07

FBM KLCI 07 Sept 2012

After falling sharply on Thurs, the FBM KLCI rebounded on Friday, gaining 6.56 points or 0.41%, to close at 1624.55 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI has not returned above 1625 support level, and also, with the KLCI below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the immediate technical outlook is slightly on the negative side. Next support for the KLCI is at 1600 psychological level.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 11.71%, with volume failing to reach the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Generally, if volume should continue to stay low, it shows that investors are reluctant to participate while being cautious. Also, without sufficient volume, the KLCI or the market as a whole is less likely to pick up its strength.

 

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded after touching 0%, suggesting a normal pullback effect after the short-term over-sold condition. But if the Stochastic should remain below 30%, it suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is still weak.

 

As per mentioned earlier, the sharp fall of the KLCI could be short-lived, and coupled with the short-term over-sold condition, the KLCI having a rebound is only normal. However, since the uptrend has been interrupted, the positive technical outlook of the KLCI has also temporary ended. But it is still too soon to call for any downtrend formation.

 

富时大马综合指数 2012-09-07

如图所示，富时大马综合指数周五出现了反弹，按日回弹6.56点或0.41%，以1624.55点挂收。不然图中箭头A所示，综指还未能重返1625点支持水平以上。此外，综指也处于14、21、31天EMA以下，因此目前的技术展望是偏弱的。综指下一道支持落在1600点的整数心理水平。

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减少了11.71%，未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA）的水平。这表示市场的交投有回到淡静格局的迹象。若接下来成交量继续减少的话，那表示投资者继续在场外观望。一般来说，若成交量偏低的话，马股通常也难以转强。

 

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在达到0%水平后出现了回弹，这表示综指短期处于超卖（Over-sold）现象后的拉回效应的正常反应。不过，接下来若随机指标还是维持在30%水平以下的话，那表示综指短期的走势还是偏弱的。

 

如昨日的分析所提到，综指短期内大幅度下跌后有可能是短暂性的，再加上综指短期处于超卖的现象，因此周五所出现的反弹也是很正常的。不过，由于综指涨势暂时已受到了中断，因此综指之前处于正面的技术展望也暂时将告一段落。至于综指会否就此形成跌势，那仍然有待进一步的确认。

 

祝你好运