Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 19/10/2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-10-19

富时大马综合指数 2012-10-19

富时大马综合指数在活跃的交投的推动之下，在周五的确上探了1668点的阻力水平。综指盘中一度上涨至1670.16点的全日最高，写下来历史新高。不过，由于投资者套利的缘故，综指最后还是无法在突破1668的水平，只能以1666.35点挂收，按日微扬0.93点或0.06%。因此1668点继续是综指目前的阻力水平，至于支持水平方面就是图中所示的14、21、31天EMA动态支持线。

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周五增加了6.27%，继续处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上。这表示市场的交投果真活跃起来了。不但如此，市场交易总值也增加了42.5%，达21亿8600万令吉，写下了马股3个月的交易总值新高。这表示投资活跃交易的不只是低价股而且还有许多的蓝筹股项，其中包括了马电讯（TM）与亚通（Axiata）。

 

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续处于70%的水平以上，这表示综指短期依然维持在偏强的格局中。

 

总的来说，虽然马股周五交投量与交易总值都偏高，但是美中不足的偏偏是下跌股项明显多过上升股（409只跌 / 294只起）。因此，这反而反映出偏高的交投量与交易市值是投资者活跃套利所致。主要原因是因为综指正在试探1668点的重要阻力水平，投资者在保持谨慎之下选择避免在周末持票才套利离场。无论如何，就算是套利活动活跃，也不影响综指目前正面的技术展望，这是因为综指继续获得14、21、31天EMA动态支持线的扶持。

 

FBM KLCI 19 Oct 2012

As indicated by A, the FBMKLCI tested the 1668 resistance with strong volume on Friday, with its intra-day high reaching 1670.16 points, making yet another historical new high. However, due to strong profit takings, the FBMKLCI failed to close above 1668 and only closed at 1666.35 points, gaining only 0.93 of a point or 0.06%. Therefore, the immediate resistance for the FBMKLCI is still at 1668 while the support is the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 6.27%, with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This shows that the market is actively participated. Not only that, the market turnover value also increased 42.5%, hitting RM 21.86 Billion, which is the highest in 3 months. This suggests that not only low-priced stocks are actively traded, there were some blue chips as well, which includes TM, and Axiata.

 

As indicated by C, the Stochastic remains above 70%, in the short-term bullish territory. This suggests that the short-term movement of the FBMKLCI is still positive.

 

In conclusion, although the market trading volume and turnover value has increased, losers outnumbered gainers, and this is actually reflecting that profit taking is generally dominant on Friday, as investors are taking caution ahead of the weekend, and choose to take profit on Friday, as they are unsure if the FBMKLCI could successfully break above the 1668 resistance. Nevertheless, despite the slightly stronger selling pressure, the technical outlook for the FBMKLCI remains positive, as the FBMKLCI is still firmly above the rising 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

 

HAPPY TRENDING & GOODLUCK

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 05-10-2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-10-05

FBM KLCI 05 Oct 2012

As indicated by A, the KLCI open gap up at 1665.17 points, and had its gains up to 6.85 points. However, soon profit taking pulled the KLCI lower, closing at 1660.23 point while losing 1.24 points. Meanwhile, the KLCI is touching 20-days Bollinger Upper Band, suggesting that the short-term movement is showing an over-bought condition, thus some pullback is likely.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume remains below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, and this shows that the market participation is still not active. Also, this implies that investors are still not feeling confident about the market.

 

As indicated by C, the Stochastic retreats a little after touching 100%. This suggests a short-term over-heating signal, caused by the continuous rising of the KLCI over the short-term period. Some technical correction is likely, but as long as the Stochastic could stay above 70%, it suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is still positive.

 

In conclusion, the KLCI has not really corrected since rebounding from 1600. Technically, in order to sustain a healthy uptrend, some consolidation or correction is required. Immediate resistance for the KLCI is at 1668 while the support is at the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

 

富时大马综合指数 2012-10-05

如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数周五跳空上扬以1665.17点开市。综指开市后一度上涨6.85，但随后因投资者套利而回软，按日下跌1.24点，以1660.23点挂收。另外，综指已经稍微突破了20天的布林上频带（20-day Bollinger Upper Band），这表示综指短期走势开始处于超买的现象（Over-Bought），因此在近期内有拉回效应的可能。

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量依然处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下，这表示市场的交投量还未能达到“活跃”的水平。同时也还是暗示着投资者对马股信心不强。

 

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）达到100%水平后周五稍微的下滑，这表示综指短期的走势的确强劲，但是却处于过热的现象。这都是因为综指在短期内多日上涨所致。因此有技术调整的可能。无论如何，只要随机指标还是能维持在70%水平以上的话，那短期的走势还是偏强的。

 

总的来说，综指上扬多日后，都未曾真正的调整过。以技术而言，若综指能进入盘整格局，或稍微出现回调的话，那将有助于综指维持一个健康的涨势。无论如何，由于综指上涨1668.32点后开始回软，因此暂时的阻力将落在1668点的水平。支持水平方面则是落在14、21、31天EMA的动态支持线。

 

祝你好运

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 02-10-2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-10-02

FBM KLCI 02 October 2012

Since rebounding from 1600, the KLCI has been rising for the 6^th days. On Tuesday, the KLCI closed at 1651.03 points, gaining 7.72 points or 0.47%. As indicated by A, the KLCI is approaching the 1655 historical high, while its support is at 1625.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 0.66%, however, it is still unable to break above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the market participation relatively still quiet, and also implying that investors are still not feeling confident about the market.

 

As indicated by C, the Stochastic stays above 70%, and still rising, after breaking above 70% on last Friday. This suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is bullish biased.

 

In conclusion, although the short-term movement of the KLCI is positive, it has not resumed its previous uptrend as it is still capped under 1655. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the immediate technical outlook is on the positive side.

 

富时大马综合指数 2012-10-02

富时大马综合指数自1600点反弹以来，至今已经连续上扬了第6天。综指周二上扬7.72点或0.47%，以1651.03点挂收。如图中箭头A所示，综指即将要试探1655点的历史高峰阻力水平，支持水平落在1625点。

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加了0.66%，成交量还未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA）的水平。以技术而言，马股目前的交投还是属于淡静的，这继续暗示着投资者对马股的信心还是不强。

 

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）自上周五突破70%水平后继续上扬，目前继续处于短期强势区域里。以技术而言，只要随机指标能维持在70%水平以上，那综指短期的走势将还是维持在偏强的格局中。

 

总的来说，综指短期走势虽然偏强，但是却还不至于表示综指将能恢复之前的上升趋势。这是因为综指还未能突破1655点的阻力水平。无论如何，由于综指已经处于14、21、31天EMA以上，因此目前的技术展望是处于正面的。

 

祝你好运

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI12-09-2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-09-12

富时大马综合指数 2012-09-12

如图所示，富时大马综合指数周三盘中一度回弹，但是由于蓝筹股项继续受到卖压，特别是亚洲航空与UEM置地，使得综指只能以1613.78点挂收，按日微跌0.46点。如图中箭头A所示，14、21、31天EMA是综指目前的动态阻力线。另外，综指阻力落在1625点，支持则是1600点的整数点。

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周三减少了16.3%，使得成交量继续处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下。这表示马股整体上的交投是处于淡静的。以技术而言，若成交量继续偏低的话，那马股一般上都难以转强。

 

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）到目前为止还是处于30%水平以下的短期弱势区域里。这表示综指短期还未能摆脱偏弱的格局。若随机指标能上扬突破30%水平，那综指短期有望出现技术反弹。

 

总的来说，综指周二精确在1600点整数点回弹后，周三大致上在窄幅中波动。不过，全日上扬股项有409只，超越下跌股的292只，这暗示者有许多股项都开始出现回弹的迹象。只不过这反弹的迹象还未反映在综指上。无论如何，综指会否形成熊市目前还是言之过早。

 

FBM KLCI 12 Sept 2012

On Wednesday, the KLCI had some early gains, but the strong selling pressure in blue chips pushes the KLCI lower, especially AIRASIA and UEMLAND. At the close, the KLCI fell 0.46 of a point to 1613.78 points. As indicated by A, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is serving as the dynamic resistance. Immediate resistance for the KLCI is at 1625 and the support is at 1600 mark.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 16.3%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This shows that the market is indeed quiet, as investors are being very cautious, while reluctant to take up positions. Generally, without sufficient participation, the market as a whole is less likely to pick up its strength.

 

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains below 30%, in the short-term bearish territory. This suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is still on the weaker side. If the Stochastic should break above 30%, it would be a signal suggesting a technical rebound.

 

In conclusion, after precisely rebounding from 1600, the KLCI was fluctuating in a narrow range on Wednesday. However, the score board is showing some improvement with gainers outnumbering loser, 409 to 292. However, this minor improvement is not yet reflected in the KLCI performance. Nonetheless, it is still too early to call for any bearish or downtrend movement for the KLCI.

 

HAPPY TRENDING

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 07-09-2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-09-07

FBM KLCI 07 Sept 2012

After falling sharply on Thurs, the FBM KLCI rebounded on Friday, gaining 6.56 points or 0.41%, to close at 1624.55 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI has not returned above 1625 support level, and also, with the KLCI below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the immediate technical outlook is slightly on the negative side. Next support for the KLCI is at 1600 psychological level.

 

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 11.71%, with volume failing to reach the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Generally, if volume should continue to stay low, it shows that investors are reluctant to participate while being cautious. Also, without sufficient volume, the KLCI or the market as a whole is less likely to pick up its strength.

 

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded after touching 0%, suggesting a normal pullback effect after the short-term over-sold condition. But if the Stochastic should remain below 30%, it suggests that the short-term movement of the KLCI is still weak.

 

As per mentioned earlier, the sharp fall of the KLCI could be short-lived, and coupled with the short-term over-sold condition, the KLCI having a rebound is only normal. However, since the uptrend has been interrupted, the positive technical outlook of the KLCI has also temporary ended. But it is still too soon to call for any downtrend formation.

 

富时大马综合指数 2012-09-07

如图所示，富时大马综合指数周五出现了反弹，按日回弹6.56点或0.41%，以1624.55点挂收。不然图中箭头A所示，综指还未能重返1625点支持水平以上。此外，综指也处于14、21、31天EMA以下，因此目前的技术展望是偏弱的。综指下一道支持落在1600点的整数心理水平。

 

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减少了11.71%，未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA）的水平。这表示市场的交投有回到淡静格局的迹象。若接下来成交量继续减少的话，那表示投资者继续在场外观望。一般来说，若成交量偏低的话，马股通常也难以转强。

 

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在达到0%水平后出现了回弹，这表示综指短期处于超卖（Over-sold）现象后的拉回效应的正常反应。不过，接下来若随机指标还是维持在30%水平以下的话，那表示综指短期的走势还是偏弱的。

 

如昨日的分析所提到，综指短期内大幅度下跌后有可能是短暂性的，再加上综指短期处于超卖的现象，因此周五所出现的反弹也是很正常的。不过，由于综指涨势暂时已受到了中断，因此综指之前处于正面的技术展望也暂时将告一段落。至于综指会否就此形成跌势，那仍然有待进一步的确认。

 

祝你好运