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Saturday, December 17, 2011

Technical Analysis : DJIA and FBMKLCI 16 Dec 2011

Xmas Rally & Window Dressing To Counter Decline
The Dow closed slightly lower on Friday but remains above support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,832. The Dow turned lower in the afternoon session wiping out early session gains as optimism over Europe's debt crisis fizzled after Fitch Ratings indicated that it might downgrade ratings of six European nations. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. 
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 11,231 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,016 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.   
First resistance
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,016.
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 12,257.
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 11,786.
Second support is November's low crossing at 11,231.
 Week-on-week the Dow is down 2.61% or 317.87 points
 FTSE Malaysia Composite Index (KLCI) rose to 1472.76 points on Friday which was the intraday high, but in the moment before the close, it went down, taking the composite index to 1466.22 points but still up 2.11 points or 0.14% for the session. 
 Arrow A, as shown in the chart, the KLCI is still at EMA 14, 21, 31 days hovering around neither indicating bullish nor bearish. Resistance levels remain at 1,500 points and 200-day moving average support level is maintained at 1430 points.
The arrow shown in Figure B, the total volume shares increased by 14.44%, which is slightly higher breakthrough volume of the 40-day volume moving average (VMA). Technically, if the volume continues to increase and maintain above the 40-day average trading volume, the general outlook will indicate improving sentiments of the overall investment climate. However, the shares that are actively traded on Friday are still low-priced items consisting mostly pennystocks & warrants, As such, the current increase in volume does not truly reflects the recovery of bluechips or big cap stocks investment in KLSE.
The arrow shown in Figure C, the Stochastic continue to rise, but is still confined between 30% and 70% level This means that the KLCI is moving within a narrow tight range short-term pattern.
Overall, the KLCI is still at the current point between 1430 to 1500 consolidation pattern and the direction remains uncertain. The KLCI pattern of long-term trend, it is still maintained in the bearish bias pattern, because the KLCI is closer to the 200-day moving average line support.


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