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Monday, December 5, 2011

Daily / Weekly Technical Analysis : FBM KLCI 05 Dec 2011

The FBMKLCI : Daily & Weekly Technical Outlook
A pullback necessary for further support  
The blue-chip benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI)
surged 57.47 points, or 4% week-on-week to settle at 1,489.02, with CIMB (+46sen), Genting
Bhd (+84sen), Maybank (+35sen) and Tenaga (+30sen) contributing more than two-fifths of
the index’s rally. Average daily traded volume and value improved moderately to 1.55bn
shares and RM1.68bn respectively, compared with the 1.45bn shares and RM1.1bn average
the previous week.
Trading range for the KLCI ballooned to 65.32 points last week, compared with the 27.79-
point range the previous week, as blue chips pushed the index up to flirt with the 1,500 level.
For the week, the FBM-EMAS Index rallied 353.64 points, or 3.6% to 10,169.61, while the
FBM-Small Cap Index climbed 175.56 points, or 1.54% to 11,570.25.
 The daily slow stochastics indicator for the KLCI has climbed up steeply and is fast
approaching the overbought line (Chart 1), while the weekly indicator has re-hooked
upwards to neutralize the previous week’s sell signal. The 14-day Relative Strength Index
(RSI) indicator climbed up for a robust reading of 60.37 as of last Friday, while the 14-week
RSI hooked up with a positive reading above 50.
The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signal line crossed for a buy
signal following last Thursday’s gap-up, while the weekly MACD has re-hooked upwards to
retain the bullish stance (Chart 2). Meanwhile, the +DI and -DI lines on the 14-day Directional
Movement Index (DMI) trend indicator crossed for a buy signal on a leveling ADX line.
Buy signals on the daily MACD and DMI trend indicators with improving momentum
indicators following last week’s robust 4% rally on KLCI could see the local market resuming
higher towards year-end. However, on the daily chart, the sighting of a bearish “shooting
star” candle, signaling high possibility for a short-term peak coinciding with the key 200-day
moving average resistance, should see the index pullback and cover last Thursday’s gap-up
before more buying interest returns. As such, investors should see the market move into base
building mode to reinforce a higher support platform this coming week.
The immediate resistance is now at 1,503, the 200-day moving average matching last
Thursday’s high, which is a key hurdle to cross and promote breakout to target 1,529, the
76.4% Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of the sell-off from the 1,597 record high of 11 July to the
recent pivot low of 1,310 on 26 Sept. The next significant hurdle will then be 1,597 which
requires a total reversal in risk aversion with regards to the European debt situation and
global economic outlook. Immediate support is upgraded to 1,473, the 100-day moving
average, with better support at 1,437, the leveling 50-day moving average.

Weekly Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 05/12/2011

For the week ended on the 2nd of December, 2011, the KLCI gained a total of 57.47 points or 4.01% with its weekly high of 1502.53 point and the weekly low of 1437.21 points. Total market volume was 6,209,836,600 shares, downed 14.63%.
Main Chart:
As the KLCI rebounded strongly, it managed to break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance. However, the KLCI failed to break above the 1500 resistance, and coincidentally, the 1500 is also the level of the 200 day Moving Average. This suggests that the long term movement of the KLCI is still on the negative side.

Bollinger Bands:
After the KLCI had broken above the Bollinger middle band, the Bollinger Bands also expanded, though not significantly. For now, the Bollinger Bands is showing a positive signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume were gaining gradually, while marginally above the 40-day volume moving average. This suggests some improvement in the market participation. Technically, if volume should stay above the 40-day volume moving average, the market sentiment as a whole is likely to improve.

With the strong rebound of the KLCI, the MACD histogram continues to tick up, while the Rounding Bottom signal is still in sight. Meanwhile, the MACD line is also breaking above the zero level, thus bringing more positive signal to the KLCI.

WinChart RSI:
The WinChart RSI is picking up some strength, though not yet breaking above 70%. Technically, if the WinChart RSI should break above 70%, it would be a signal suggesting a mid term bullish strength for the KLCI.

After breaking above 70% on Wednesday, the Stochastic stayed above 70%, which is the short term bullish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is positive.

In Conclusion:
With the KLCI above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for the KLCI is positive. However, the KLCI has not returned to its uptrend yet, not until a valid break out above 1500.

每周技术分析 02/12/2011
综指上周回弹后精确的在200天移动平均线(Moving Average)遇阻,这也是1500点的心理阻力关口(参考箭头A),所以阻力倍增,这意味着综指接下来的阻力水平维持在1500点以及200MA,支持水平则是1453.81点的费氏线。
综指上周上扬突破布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band),这使到综指的走势避开继续下跌,综指随即出现转强的趋势,接下来若布林频带(Bollinger Band)开始打开,而综指又能继续保持在布林中频带以上,综指将有望形成上扬的趋势。
胜图强弱指标(WinChart RSI)继续回弹,并且上扬突破50%的水平,这显示综指的中期走势从弱势转为中和偏强。


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