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Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 02/11/2011 综合指数 2011年 11月 02日

FBM KLCI 02 Nov 2011
As indicated by A, the KLCI had its intraday low reaching 1457.50 points, but it was supported by both the 1453 Fibonacci Retracement Line, as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, and regain most of the early losses, to close at 1470.95 points, downed 4.69 points or 0.32%. For now, the 14, 21, 31 EMA and the 1453 are still the support for the KLCI while the resistance remains unchanged at 1487.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 31.13%, with volume above the 40-day volume moving average. Generally, market is still well-participated, and technically, if volume should remain above the 40-day volume moving average, the market sentiment as a whole is still positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic remains above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. Therefore, this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still positive.

In short, the short term uptrend of the KLCI is still intact. In fact, if the KLCI could rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would be forming higher-lows, which suggests that the technical outlook is still positive. However, performance of the US and European markets has a major impact to the sustainability of the KLCI short term uptrend.

 综合指数 2011年 11 02
 如图中箭头A所示,富时大马综合指数(综指)周三一度下滑至1457.50点的全日最低,惟在142131天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)动态支持线及靠近1453点费氏支持线获得了扶持,才把全日跌幅18.14点减至4.69点。综指当前支持水平保持在1453点及142131EMA,阻力水平仍然是1487点的费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加31.13%,因此成交量还是维持在40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上。这表示马股当前的交投还是属于活跃的,而一般来说,只要成交量能维持在40天的成交量平均线以上,那将有利于马股维持当前的短期涨势。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)依然处于70%水平以上的短期强势区域里,这表示综指短期的走势目前还是偏强的。

总的来说,综指短期涨势依然是完整的。接下来若综指能在142131EMA动态支持线以上反弹的话,那便是形成较高低(Higher-lows)的特征。不过,至于综指短期涨势能否延续下去而逐步演变成中期的涨势,那就要看欧美股市接下来的表现了。

祝你好运

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