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Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年 11月 01日 FBMKLCI 01/11/2011

综合指数 2011年 11 01
如图中箭头A所示,富时大马综合指数(综指)一度上扬至1485.90点的全日最高,惟在1487.62点的费氏阻力线遇阻后下跌,按日下挫16.25点或1.09%,以1475.64点挂收。综指当前支持水平仍然是1453点的费氏线及142131天综合加权移动平均线(Exponential Moving Average – EMA)的动态支持线。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周二减少10.4%,不过还是勉强的处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上。接下来若成交量继续下跌并跌破40天的成交量平均线的话,那表示马股的交投再次回到淡静的格局。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)在周二下跌,不过却还未跌破70%水平。这表示综指短期的走势还是偏强的,直到随机指标失守70%水平为止。当随机指标跌破70%水平时,除了表示综指短期偏强走势告一段落以外,也表示短期技术调整的开始。

总的来说,综指虽然回跌超过16点,但是短期涨势依然是完整的。以技术而言,只要综指能继续获得142131EMA动态支持线的扶持,那当前的技术展望将还是偏强的。相反地,若综指失守142131EMA的话,那表示综指短期的涨势也将受到了破坏。

FBM KLCI 01 Nov 2011
As indicated by A, the KLCI had its intraday high reaching 1485.90 points, but it was still resisted by 1487.62 Fibonacci Retracement line, and ended 16.25 points or 1.09% lower to close at 1475.64 points. Support for the KLCI remains at 1453 as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 10.4%, while still above to stay above the 40-day volume moving average. If volume should continue to fall and failed to stay above the 40-day volume moving average, it suggests that the market participation would then back to quiet, and the market sentiment would likely be affected too.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell on Tuesday, but still able to hold up above 70%, in the short term bullish territory. This suggests that the market movement for the short term is still positive. If the Stochastic should break below 70%, it would mark an end to the short term bullish movement, while also indicates a beginning of a technical correction.

In conclusion, despite losing over 16 points, the short term uptrend of the KLCI is still intact. Technically, provided that the KLCI could stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, the technical outlook for the KLCI is still positive.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL 

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