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Friday, January 28, 2011

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年01月28日 / FBMKLCI 28/01/2911

综合指数 2011年 01月 28日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指数微跌5.07点或0.33%,综指以1521.89点闭市,综指再度跌破了1525.49点的费氏线,这使到1525.49点成为综指当前的阻力水平,支持水平则落在1513.34点的费氏线。


如图所示好,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)打开的幅度为7%,这显示综指下跌的速度持续的缓和下来,不过布林频带并未收窄,所以综指并未出现回弹上扬的走势。无论如何,布林中频带成为综指接下来的阻力线,综指是必须上扬突破此阻力线,综指才有望摆脱下跌的走势。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量进一步减少4.5%,所以成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这显示市场的交投量减少至稍微淡静的格局,这也是因为在综指下调了整4.5%后,投资者开始谨慎投资,选择静观其变所致。

如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)精确的在30%的水平回软,所以指标始终未能上扬突破30%的水平,这显示综指的短期走势仍然处于下跌的格局中,直到指标成功的上扬突破30%的水平为止。

总的来说,综指开始步入淡静的格局,有开始出现巩固的迹象,不过布林频带并未开始收窄来确认综指是否出现横摆巩固。无论如何,由于综指始终低于布林中频带以及31天加权移动平均线(EMA),所以仍然综指回弹的走势只能算是纯技术反弹,直到综指能突破这两道动态阻力线为止。

FBM KLCI 28 January 2011
As indicated by A, the KLCI fell 5.07 points or 0.33%, to close at 1521.89 points. The KLCI is now below the 1525.49 and therefore, 1525.49 is the immediate resistance while the support is at 1513.34.


As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 7%, and still the expansion rate is gradually reduced, and this implies that the Bollinger Bands could be contracting soon, thus a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI. However, as the KLCI is still below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is on the negative side.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 4.5%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Again, this shows that the market is quiet as investors are staying away from the market, a head of the festive holiday.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic tested 30%, but it failed to break above 30%. Therefore, the short term bearish signal for the KLCI remains intact, and this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still weak.

In conclusion, as the market is getting quieter, the KLCI also showing signs of a consolidation, but the Bollinger Bands has not started to contract, and therefore, it has not formed the consolidation signal. Nevertheless, technical outlook for the KLCI remains on the negative side as the KLCI is still below the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance.

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