Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年01月19日 / FBMKLCI 19/01/2011

FBM KLCI 19 January 2011
As indicated y A, the FBM KLCI had an intra-day low reaching 1561.87 points, but it managed to rebound right below closing, ended the day at 1566.51 points, downed 3.53 points or 0.22%. Support for the KLCI is at 1552.66 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1567.95 points.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands contracted 43%, and this suggests that the KLCI is still consolidating, but since the KLCI is below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is on the lower side.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 4.22%, but still above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Generally, the market is still actively participated, but if volume should continue to fall, the market sentiment could turn weaker.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic fell below 70%, ended the short term bullish signal. If the Stochastic should break below 30%, it would be entering the short term bearish territory, and the KLCI short term movement is likely to turn weak.

In conclusion, the KLCI is still consolidating, but gradually turning weaker as the KLCI has broken below the Bollinger Middle Band. Nevertheless, the Bollinger Bands has not expanded, and therefore, it has not confirmed any bearish movement signal for the KLCI yet.

综合指数 2011年 01月 19日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数一度下跌至1561.87点的全日最低点，惟综指在收市是回弹，收窄跌幅，以1566.51点闭市，按日下滑3.53点或0.22%，综指当前的支持水平落在1552.66点的费氏线，阻力水平则维持在1576.95点。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄43%，所以综指仍然处于调整巩固的格局中，惟综指周三跌破布林中频带，这使到综指有趋软的迹象，因为接下来若布林频带开始明显的打开，而综指又未能回到布林中频带以上，综指将有形成跌势的风险。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的总成交量减少4.22%，不过成交量成功的保持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这表示整体市场虽然开始沉寂下来，不过交投量仍然达到一个健康的水平，所以市场仍然有足够的承接力量吸纳套利的卖压。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破70%，所以综指的短期走势有开始转弱的讯号，接下来若随机指标跌破30%的水平，综指的短期走势将被确认进入短期的跌势中，直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。

总的来说，综指在调整巩固了两周后，有开始转弱的迹象，所幸的是布林频带目前仍然收窄，所以综指并未确认任何新趋势，接下来综指必须在短期内重返布林中频带，那综指新趋势在布林频带打开时，才能避开形跌势。

CAVEAT EMPTOR

(Buyers Beware)