ZLBT Chats

Monday, January 31, 2011

FBMKLCI >>> Short term pain Longterm gain

Intraday Chart c/w FBM Top 30 stocks
 Bluechips Index Closes Off Low
Share prices on Bursa Malaysia recovered some of its losses in eleventh hour buying but the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) still finished in the minus territory.

The market barometer closed 1.95 points easier at 1,519.94 after opening 14.22 points lower at 1,507.67. A dealer said gains in Axiata, Genting, Maxis and Sime Darby managed to cap earlier losses.

Axiata advanced seven sen to RM4.80, Genting rose six sen to RM3.33, Maxis added two sen to RM5.34 while Sime Darby gained three sen to RM9.19.

Buying was also seen in properties, construction, industrial products and trade/services stocks with the key index trading between 1,505.85 and 1,520.63 points throughout the day.

A dealer said the local market, which remained in the red for most part of the day, saw range-bound trading as most investors were already away for the Chinese New Year holidays.

"Most likely, it is going to be quiet this week with only one-and-a-half- days of trading this week," HwangDBS Vickers Research said in its research note today.

A sharp decline in overnight Wall Street and uncertainties in Egypt also made the local equities market less attractive.

The Finance Index fell 28.479 points to 13,934.65, the Plantation Index shed 19.03 points to 7,868.73 while the Industrial Index dipped 4.03 points to 2,863.5. The FBM Emas Index fell 18.39 points to 10,469.17 and the FBM70 Index slipped 29.551 points to 11,222.6. The FBM Ace Index, however, rose 39.45 points to 4,292.25. Decliners outpaced advancers 428 to 300 while 280 were unchanged, 386 untraded and 41 others were suspended.

Volume rose to 1.415 billion shares, worth RM2.08 billion, from 1.347 billion shares, valued at RM1.976 billion, registered on Friday.

FBMKLCI 1,498 Key Support to Watch,
Historical Trend Favor Recovery Post CNY

Monthly Candlesticks
 After forming a double-top at 1,576 followed by sharp dip to 1,505 in January, the KLCI should move into base building mode to reinforce support which would anchor the subsequent longer-term uptrend. Key support where the index should bottom out is at 1,498, taken from three different Fibonacci Retracement (FR) points.

This important support must hold to prevent a deeper correction towards 1,450, which we deem will be remote. The index performance in February has been positive in 15 of the past 21 years, gaining an average 3.7%, while 2 weeks post Chinese New Year the benchmark averaged 5% gain in the past 19 years.

On the monthly chart, an extended wave (3) rally could sustain through 2011 to a base case upside target of 1,813, assuming the prior wave 3 rally (from 548 low of April 2001 to 1,525 peak of January 2008) equals the current up-wave from 836 low, that is (1,525 - 548 = 977 + 836 = 1,813).

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