Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年01月17日 / FBMKLCI 17/01/2011

综合指数 2011年 01月 17日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数稍微上扬，综指以1574.49点闭市，以收市水平来算，综指1574.49点是历史的新高水平。综指当前的支持水平继续处于1552.66点的费氏线，阻力水平则维持在1576.95点。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄32%，这进一步的显示综指继续的处于一个调整巩固的格局中。一般上，综指将保持巩固的格局，直到布林频带再度明显的打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，由于综指调整巩固，马股交易的数量减少11.05%，不过仍然保持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这显示马股属于活跃的状态，若成交量能保持在40天平均值以上，这将对综指保持转强的走势有利。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）上扬并且突破90%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势继续维持在上扬的格局。以技术而言，只要随机指标继续处于70%以上，综指的短期上扬趋势仍然算是完整的。

总的来说，综指依然属于调整巩固的走势中，目前综指仍然获得布林中频带以及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）的扶持，所以若布林频带在短期内开始打开，综指仍然有望恢复上扬的趋势。

FBM KLCI 17 January 2011
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI gained 4.6 points to close at 1574.49 points, making yet another historical new high. Support for the KLCI is at 1552.66 while the resistance is at 1576.95. As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 32%, and this suggests that the KLCI is still consolidating, until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 11.05%, but remain above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This shows that the market is still active, while investors' confidence is still on the positive side.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks above 90%, and this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is strong, but getting slightly over-heated. Nevertheless, with the Stochastic above 70%, the short term market movement for the KLCI is expected to be positive.

In conclusion, the KLCI is still consolidating, with positive technical outlook. At the same time, the long term view of the KLCI remains positive as the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, more upside movement for the KLCI is likely.

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