TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : Composite Index 26/08/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 08月 26日

综合指数 2010年 08月 26日

如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数出现回弹，上扬11.03点或0.8%，这使到综指重新回到1400点的水平，1400点再次的成为综指当前的支持水平，阻力水平则是1436点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄3%，所以虽然综指回弹，不过综指目前仍然算是处于调整巩固的格局中，直到布林频带再度打开为止。在综指调整巩固时，通常布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）将成为综指调整的第一目标，它也是综指的动态支持线，所以只要在能在布林中频带上获得扶持，综指有望继续转强，直到综指跌破布林中频带为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量减少21.6%，这使到成交量跌破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示在综指出现调整的时候，投资者开始小心翼翼，或减少交易。无论如何，综指在午盘后上扬，这有望使到投资者接下来再度回笼。

如图中箭头C所示，由于随机指标（Stochastic）再度上扬，所以综指的短期走势再度达到100%的水平，由于随机指标处于70%以上，所以综指的短期走势并未下跌，不过随机指标再度触及100%使到综指短期过热的警报未拆除，综指仍然有短期调整的风险。

总的来说，综指虽然回弹至1400点以上，不过综指短期走势仍然过热，因为布林频带仍然处于收窄的趋势。以技术而言，综指将继续维持调整巩固的格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止，届时若综指仍然处于布林中频带以上，综指将有望恢复上扬的趋势。

Composite Index 26/08/2010

As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rebounded on Thursday, gaining 11.03 points or 0.8%, with the KLCI standing above the 1400 level. Immediate support for the KLCI remains at 1400 while the resistance is at 1436 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 3%, suggesting that the KLCI might be consolidating. If the KLCI should consolidate, the market direction would be unclear, until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 21.6%, with volume falling below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that most investors are being cautious while staying on the sidelines. If volume should stay low, the market is less likely to pick up its strength.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is touching 100% again, signaling that the short term movement of the KLCI is over-heated again. Nevertheless, with the Stochastic above 70%, the market movement

for the short term is still bullish biased.

In short, the KLCI returned to above 1400 level, but short term over-bought condition remains intact. The KLCI is likely to consolidate with the Bollinger Bands contracting but immediate technical outlook is still on the positive side.

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