TECHNICAL ANALYSIS > 综合指数 2010年08月20日/ Composite Index 20/08/2010

综合指数 2010年 08月 20日

如图中箭头A所示，虽然区域股市被道指拖累而纷纷下滑，富时综合指数仍然收高2.46点，以1395.02点闭市，综指当前的阻力水平仍然是1400的心理阻力水平，支持水平则维持在1354点及1340.63点的费氏支持水平

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如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开17%，由于打开的幅度开始减少，所以上扬综指上扬的幅度也减少，不过只要综指一直处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，布林频带打开将使到综指继续走高。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然马股的成交量进一步减少15.1%，不过成交量仍然能达到40天成交量平均值（VMA），这显示虽然投资者在外围因素的影响下，有的采取观望的态度，不过整体上市场还是有相当足够的交易活动，这对综指转强的走势有保温的作用。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续处于100%的水平，这是综指短期走势强劲，并且略带过热的讯号。无论如何，接下来若随机指标能继续维持在70%以上，综指的短期走势将能维持着上扬的趋势。

换句话说，若随机指标跌破70%的水平，综指的短期涨势将有结束的风险。总的来说，综指目前仍然属于涨势中，惟布林频带打开的幅度有减低的迹象，所以综指将有出现技术调整的可能。一般上，只要综指不跌破布林中频带，综指的下跌趋势只是纯技术调整而已。

Composite Index 20/08/2010

As indicated by A, despite regional markets are closing lower, the KLCI added another 2.6 points, to close at 1395.02 points. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 1400 level while the support is at 1354 followed by 1340.63 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 17%, with the KLCI still above the Bollinger Middle Band, thus the Bollinger Bands is still showing a bullish biased signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 15.1%, but still above the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market is still relatively actively participated. Again, with the volume above the 40-day VMA level, the market sentiment as a whole is likely to stay positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still touching 100%, thus the KLCI short term movement is indeed over-heated. Therefore, a pull back is likely to take place in the near term. However, as long as the Stochastic is still above 70%, the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased.

In conclusion, if the Stochastic should break below 70%, it would mark a beginning of a technical correction. But generally, the uptrend of the KLCI is still intact, with the KLCI still above the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

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