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Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 03/07/2012 / 富时大马综合指数 2012-07-03

FBM KLCI 03 July 2012
As indicated by A, the KLCI gained 6.89 points or 0.43%, to close at 1607.74 points, which is the historical high in closing. The L2 uptrend remains intact, while the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support to the KLCI uptrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume gained 16.2%, with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Generally, with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average, it is a signal suggesting that the overall market participation is relatively active. However, if the KLCI should continue rising, and breaks above its historical high of 1611, more volume is needed to confirm such bullish break out.

As indicated by C, the MACD histogram is still falling but at a noticeably slower pace. If the MACD histogram should tick up and form a Rounding Bottom, it suggests that the KLCI short-term is picking up some strength again.

In conclusion, with the KLCI continues supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support as well as the L2 uptrend line, the technical outlook for the KLCI is still positive. If the KLCI could break above 1611, it would allow more upside room for the KLCI, but to sustain this uptrend, the KLCI would have to repeatedly forming higher-lows.

富时大马综合指数 2012-07-03
如图中箭头A所示,富时大马综合指数周二上扬6.89点或0.43%,以1607.74点挂收。虽然综指全日未创下新高,但是1607.74点也是马股有史以来最高的收市水平。图中所示L2线继续是综指目前上升趋势线,同时142131EMA也继续为动态支持线。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周二增加了16.2%,目前还是维持在40天的成交量平均线(VMA)的水平以上。这表示马股当前的交投还算是回到活跃的状况。不过,若综指接下来继续走高,并上扬突破1611点的阻力水平,同时也配合成交量明显增加的话,届时将有助于确认综指突破阻力的强势讯号。

如图中箭头C所示,平均乖离振荡指标(MACD Histogram)虽然还是在下滑中,但是下滑的速度在周二明显的减退下来,因此有望形成圆底(Rounding Bottom)。以技术而言,若平均乖离振荡指标开始上升而形成圆低的话,那表示综指短期走势有转强的讯号。

总的来说,综指因继续获得142131EMA动态支持线的扶持,同时也维持在L2上升趋势线以上,因此综指的技术展望还是处于正面。接下来若综指能上扬突破1611点的历史高峰,那将为综指后市带来更大的上扬空间。不过,综指突破阻力后仍然需要重复的形成较高底(Higher-Lows)的涨势特征,那涨势才能维持下去。

祝你好运

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