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Wednesday, July 25, 2012

DJIA Technical Analysis 25 July 2012

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Bulls' Effort Too Little, Too Late as Dow Retreats 104; Index Suffers Third Straight Triple-Digit Drop
The Dow closed lower for the third day in a row and below the June-July uptrend line crossing near 12,627 amid increased speculation that Greece may miss debt reduction targets.

Additional pressure came from news that United Parcel Service Inc. lowered its profit forecast.

Today's breakout and close below the June-July uptrend line crossing near 12,627 confirms that a trend change is taking place while opening the door for sideways to lower prices into August when a seasonal low is due to be posted. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday as the door is open for a test of the previous reaction low crossing at 12,492 possibly on Wednesday.

Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,747 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.

First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,747.
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 12,977.
First support is today's low crossing at 12,521.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 12,492.


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