Saturday, July 31, 2010
The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,101.60) also clawed back from its session lows, eking out a gain of less than a point, or 0.01%. For the week, the SPX gave back 0.1%, but managed to finish the month 6.9% ahead – its best monthly rally since July 2009. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,254.70) followed suit, erasing its early deficit to end 3 points, or 0.1%, higher.
For the week, the tech-rich index surrendered 0.7%, but still added 6.9% in July. What's more, both the SPX and COMP also clawed their way back atop their respective 10-month trendlines.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Go SHORT at broken Support
Bulls stomped on the brakes today as a wave of disappointing data washed over Wall Street. The Commerce Department kicked things off by reporting that U.S. durable goods orders fell 1% in June, defying expectations for a 1% increase during the month. Unfortunately, the afternoon release of the Fed's Beige Book struck a similarly troublesome note.
In keeping with the cautious tone of comments made by Chairman Ben Bernanke before the Senate last week, most of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported stagnant or slowing economic progress. Meanwhile, on the earnings front, a second-quarter revenue miss from aerospace giant Boeing (BA) only served to underscore the day's gloomy mood. And just like that, the Dow's four-day winning streak was snapped.
"We saw some late-day selling after the Beige Book confirmed that the economy isn't bouncing back as much as we'd like," noted a senior analyst. "Nonetheless, most of the corporate earnings we're seeing continue to be much better than expected, even if the economic data is mixed."
Crude Oil Futures
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR12 higher at MYR2,485 a metric ton after tumbling close to a week's low at MYR2,434/ton.
Some among trade participants said July production could probably decline from last month's level at 1.39 million tons, as erratic weather conditions probably lowered yields at key palm growing regions including Sabah, even as palm trees go into high production season.
Traders said any decline in palm production could boost prices to MYR2,500-MYR2,600/ton in the next few trading sessions. For the most part of the day prices remained in negative territory as the ringgit gained traction.
The dollar fell to MYR3.1900 versus Monday's level of MYR3.1950. A stronger ringgit make CPO more expensive as a feedstock, affecting palm refining margins.
In the cash market, palm olein for October/November/December was traded at $795/ton free on board Malaysian ports, a Singapore-based trading executive said. Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR10 higher at MYR2,560/ton.
CME Group Inc.'s dollar-based CPO futures weren't traded during Asian hours.
Rupiah-denominated October CPO futures on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivative Exchange were trading 1.5% lower at IDR6,710 a kilogram at 0932 GMT.
Open interest on the BMD was 68,489 lots, versus 68,489 lots Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 17,747 lots of CPO were traded versus 18,236 lots Monday.
The Dow recovered from last week's scare and is advancing towards the upper border of the broadening wedge formation. Breakout would indicate reversal of the primary down-trend, before it really began.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Friday, July 23, 2010
Thursday, July 22, 2010
1. We see it at a market top or during an uptrend.
2. It is characterized by its small real body at the upper end of the trading range and it is located above the trend. The color of the body is unimportant.
3. It has a lower shadow, which is at least twice the height of the real body.
4. There is either no upper shadow or a very short upper shadow.
The hanging man is a bearish reversal pattern. It signals a market top or a resistance level. Since it is seen after an advance, a Bearish Hanging Man Pattern signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. The low of the long lower shadow indicates that the sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Even though the bulls regained their footing and drove prices higher by the finish, the appearance of this selling pressure after a rally is a serious warning signal.
Ideally; the lower shadow of the Bearish Hanging Man Pattern must be two or three times the height of the real body. However, a long lower shadow may not have to be twice the height of the real body in the real life conditions in order to signal a reversal. The pattern is more perfect if the lower shadow is longer.
The Bearish Dragonfly Doji Pattern is a more bearish signal than the Bearish Hanging Man Pattern and it is also more reliable than the Bearish Hanging Man Pattern.
If a Bearish Hanging Man Pattern is characterized by a black real body, it shows that the close was not able to get back to the opening price level, which has potentially bearish implications.
We need a confirmation of the reversal on the next day for a more definite proof about the reversal of the uptrend. This confirmation may be in the form of a black candlestick, a large gap down or a lower close on the next trading day.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,069.59) followed suit by shedding nearly 14 points, or 1.3%. The SPX's intraday slump was contained by its 20-day moving average, which has provided tenuous support since July 9.
The appearance of the Hanging Man on 21/07 has U-turned the FKLI sentiments.
SELL INTO STRENGTH / RALLY
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed firmer on Wednesday in line with the uptrend on the cash market, dealers said.
The July 2010 and August 2010 contracts both added 7.5 points to 1,344.5 and 1,344.5 respectively. September 2010 increased 6.0 points to 1,343.0 while December 2010 went up 6.5 of a point to 1,343.5.
Volume was at 5,438 lots, higher than yesterday's 5,319 lots, while open interest increased to 21,046 contracts from 20,617 contracts previously.
On the cash market, the benchmark KLCI index ended 3.35 points higher at 1,341.02.
BUY ON DIPS
After rebounding from the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI gained another 4.32 points or 0.3% on Tuesday, to close at 1337.67 points. Support for the KLCI is at 1325 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1350.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 16%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating, and the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support, and the immediate technical outlook is still on the positive side. Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is also serving as a dynamic support for the KLCI.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 32.7%, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market participation is now improving. Generally, if volume should stay firmly above the 40-day VMA level, the market sentiment is expected to improve.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebound and remains above 70%, thus the short term bullish signal remains intact. Generally, the short term movement of the KLCI is likely to stay positive until the Stochastic should break below 70%.
In conclusion, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still positive as it is supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA. However, the Bollinger Bands has not expanded, thus the KLCI is still consolidating.
综合指数 2010年 07月 20日
富时综合指数自周一在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）继续回弹，综指按日上扬4.32点或0.3%，以1337.67点闭市。综指当前的支持水平仍然是1325点，阻力水平则是1350点的费氏线。
Monday, July 19, 2010
CPO futures market surged to a six-week high last week, lifted by a mad rush to cover short (sell) positions. The third-month forward benchmark October 2010 futures contract touched a high of RM2,461 a tonne before settling last Friday at RM2,449, up a whopping RM149 or 6.48 per cent over the week. The rush to cover shorts was evidenced by the notable contraction of 3,096 contracts or 4.27 per cent in the total open interest position to 69,473 open contracts, from the previous week's 72,569 open contracts.
There was a fear factor in the rush to cover shorts in a big way - fear that the slew of good and encouraging news would continue to see print and in newswire reports. And concern that world commodity markets, especially the soyabean oil futures market, would extend the length of their past fortnight's strong winning streak. The bellwether US soyabean oil futures market extended its run-up the price chart last week, tacking on 81 points or 2.46 per cent to settle last Friday at 38.31 US cents a pound. Industry estimates of a 2 per cent drop in the September through November US soyabean harvest fuelled soyabean oil's surge to a 14-week high.
The real catalyst for last week's short-covering binge, though, was the latest export estimates. Societe Generale de Surveillance's and Intertek Agri Services' July 1-15 export estimates were figured at a combined average of some 688,000 tons, up a hefty 84,000 tonnes or 13.85 per cent from that for first half June. It was not so much that exports have started picking up, but the realisation that Muslim countries in the Middle East and Pakistan have started buying palm oil in earnest to stock up on cooking oil ahead of the Hari Raya Aidilfitri (end-of Ramadan festive season) that really ignited last week's rally. Hari Raya Aidilfitri, or Eid al-Fitr, is likely fall on September 10.
Conclusion: A rally ramped up by short-covering, no matter how strong, should not inspire confidence as the start to a real bull phase. What is needed is fresh and renewed buying interest, something not apparent - yet. Until that happens playing this market by ear may be the best - and probably only - option.
# THE MOMENTUM INDEX: This line plots the short/medium-term direction of the market and may be interpreted as follows:
(a) The market is in an upward direction when the line closes above the neutral straight line and is in a downward direction when the reverse is the case.
(b) A loss in the momentum of the line (divergence) when prices are still heading up or down normally indicates that the market could expect a technical correction or a reversal in the near future.
# THE RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX: This indicator is most useful when plotted in conjunction with a daily bar chart and may be interpreted as follows:
(a) Overbought and oversold positions are indicated when the index goes above or below the upper and lower dotted lines.
(b) Support and resistance often show up clearly before becoming apparent on the bar chart.
(c) Divergence between the index and price action on the chart is a very strong indication that a market turning point is imminent.
SELL INTO STRENGTH / RALLY