Technical Analysis : FBMKLCI 19/12/2011 综合指数 2011年 12月 19日

FBMKLCI 19 Dec 2011
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI returned to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, gaining 11.56 points or 0.79% to close at 1477.78 on Monday. The KLCI also formed higher-lows, thus forming the L1 uptrend line and the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is positive. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 1500 point as well as the 200-day Moving Average.

As indicated by B, despite the KLCI gaining over 10 points, total market volume fell 10.54%, with volume below the 40-day volume moving average, while losers out-numbered winners. This suggests that the KLCI was only lifted by some heavy weighted blue chips, and the improvement is not broad base.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks above 70%, entering the short term bullish territory. If the Stochastic could continue to stay above 70%, the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to be positive.

In conclusion, the KLCI is forming the L1 uptrend line, with its immediate technical outlook turning positive. However, in order to sustain this uptrend, the KLCI must break above its 1500 resistance. If the KLCI could break out above 1500, with strong volume, more upside room for the KLCI is likely.

综合指数 2011年 12月 19日

如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数（综指）周一重返14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average – EMA）以上，按日上扬11.56点或0.79%，1477.78点挂收。综指同时形成较高底（Higher-lows）的特征，于是形成了L1的上升趋势线。接下来若综指能继续维持在L1线或14、21、31天EMA上，那综指的技术展望将恢复到正面的。综指阻力水平依然是1500点及200天的移动平均线。

如图中箭头B所示，综指虽然周一虽然上扬，但是马股总成交量却减少10.54%，并且处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下,再加上马股周一下跌的股项多过上升股项，这表示综指只是因为一些重量级蓝筹股项的带动而上扬，但是马股整体上的交投并未全面性的增加，这表示投资者对马股的信心还未完整恢复。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）周一上扬突破70%水平，进入了短期强势区域里。接下来若随机指标能继续维持在70%水平以上，那综指短期的走势将会是偏强的。

总的来说，虽然综指周一上扬超过10点，并形成L1的上升趋势线，不过综指能否延续上扬格局，仍然要看综指接下来能否突破1500点的大关。无论如何，综指当前的技术展望是处于正面的，若综指能突破1500点阻力水平，再配合马股总成交量明显增加并保持在40天的成交量平均线以上的话，那综指届时后市将有望看高一线。

祝你好运

Technical Analysis : DJIA and FBMKLCI 16 Dec 2011

Xmas Rally & Window Dressing To Counter Decline

The Dow closed slightly lower on Friday but remains above support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,832. The Dow turned lower in the afternoon session wiping out early session gains as optimism over Europe's debt crisis fizzled after Fitch Ratings indicated that it might downgrade ratings of six European nations. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. 

The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 11,231 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,016 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.   
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,016.

Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 12,257.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 11,786.

Second support is November's low crossing at 11,231.

 Week-on-week the Dow is down 2.61% or 317.87 points

 FTSE Malaysia Composite Index (KLCI) rose to 1472.76 points on Friday which was the intraday high, but in the moment before the close, it went down, taking the composite index to 1466.22 points but still up 2.11 points or 0.14% for the session. 

 Arrow A, as shown in the chart, the KLCI is still at EMA 14, 21, 31 days hovering around neither indicating bullish nor bearish. Resistance levels remain at 1,500 points and 200-day moving average support level is maintained at 1430 points.

The arrow shown in Figure B, the total volume shares increased by 14.44%, which is slightly higher breakthrough volume of the 40-day volume moving average (VMA). Technically, if the volume continues to increase and maintain above the 40-day average trading volume, the general outlook will indicate improving sentiments of the overall investment climate. However, the shares that are actively traded on Friday are still low-priced items consisting mostly pennystocks & warrants, As such, the current increase in volume does not truly reflects the recovery of bluechips or big cap stocks investment in KLSE.

The arrow shown in Figure C, the Stochastic continue to rise, but is still confined between 30% and 70% level This means that the KLCI is moving within a narrow tight range short-term pattern.

Overall, the KLCI is still at the current point between 1430 to 1500 consolidation pattern and the direction remains uncertain. The KLCI pattern of long-term trend, it is still maintained in the bearish bias pattern, because the KLCI is closer to the 200-day moving average line support.

HAPPY WEEKEND 

ZLBT Random Stock Pick >>> 5005 UNISEM BHD

A picture paints a thousand words

No need commentaries 

GOODLUCK 

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年 12月 15日 FBMKLCI 15/12/2011

综合指数 2011年 12月 15日
如图中箭头A所示，富时大马综合指数（综指）周四一度下跌至1448.54点的全日最低点（盘中下跌14.58点），但是在蓝筹股如CIMB,UMW及IOI的带动之下，使得综指缓缓的回弹，并且已1464.11点挂收，微扬0.99%。综指阻力水平依然是1500点及200天的移动平均线，支持水平则是1430点的水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周四虽然增加4.67%，但是依然处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下。这表示马股当前的交投还是属于淡静的，同时暗示着投资者对马股还未恢复信心。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）周四回弹，并稍微突破30%水平。若随机指标能在50%水平之间徘徊的话，那表示综指短期的走势将会是进入低幅度的横摆盘整格局。

总的来说，综指继续在1430点至1500点的区域范围内盘整，目前还未形成涨势或跌势。但是综指长期的走势，却还是处于熊市格局里，直到综指成功上扬突破200天移动平均线为止.

FBM KLCI 15 Dec 2011

Arrow A shown in Figure FTSE Malaysia Composite Index (KLCI) fell to 1448.54 points Thursday intraday lowest point (session down 14.58 points), but blue chips such as CIMB, UMW and IOI drove the rebound, making the KLCI resilient to close at 1464.11 points giving the KLCI a 0.99 point  microgain. The KLCI is still facing a hardy 1,500 points resistance level together with the SMA 200. Support  is seen 1430 points.

The arrow shown in Figure B, market shares of the total volume increase by 4.67% on Thursday though, but still below the 40-day average trading volume (VMA). This means that the current trading activities are a little quiet, while suggesting that investors have not yet restored full confidence in the KLSE.

The arrow shown in Figure C, the Stochastic on Thursday rebounded, and slightly exceeded the 30% level. If the Stochastic keeps hovering between 30% & 50% level, then the short-term trend of the KLCI can be considered as a low rate horizontal consolidation pattern.

 

Overall, the KLCI  remain within 1430 points to 1500 points - the area of correction, and have yet to rally or decline. However, the KLCI long-term trend is still fluctuating within a bear market pattern until the Composite Index should rise and overcome the 1500 mark or the SMA 200 Resistance.

HAPPY TRADING 

CPO Chart

Rising US Dollar to cap Crude & CPO Upside

 SUPPORT 

2981

3000

RESISTANCE

SMA 14 >>> 3065

SMA 31 >>> 3086

SMA 21 >>> 3110

HAPPY TRADING