FBMKLCI >>> Short term pain Longterm gain



Intraday Chart c/w FBM Top 30 stocks

 Bluechips Index Closes Off Low
Share prices on Bursa Malaysia recovered some of its losses in eleventh hour buying but the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) still finished in the minus territory.

The market barometer closed 1.95 points easier at 1,519.94 after opening 14.22 points lower at 1,507.67. A dealer said gains in Axiata, Genting, Maxis and Sime Darby managed to cap earlier losses.

Axiata advanced seven sen to RM4.80, Genting rose six sen to RM3.33, Maxis added two sen to RM5.34 while Sime Darby gained three sen to RM9.19.

Buying was also seen in properties, construction, industrial products and trade/services stocks with the key index trading between 1,505.85 and 1,520.63 points throughout the day.

A dealer said the local market, which remained in the red for most part of the day, saw range-bound trading as most investors were already away for the Chinese New Year holidays.

"Most likely, it is going to be quiet this week with only one-and-a-half- days of trading this week," HwangDBS Vickers Research said in its research note today.

A sharp decline in overnight Wall Street and uncertainties in Egypt also made the local equities market less attractive.

The Finance Index fell 28.479 points to 13,934.65, the Plantation Index shed 19.03 points to 7,868.73 while the Industrial Index dipped 4.03 points to 2,863.5. The FBM Emas Index fell 18.39 points to 10,469.17 and the FBM70 Index slipped 29.551 points to 11,222.6. The FBM Ace Index, however, rose 39.45 points to 4,292.25. Decliners outpaced advancers 428 to 300 while 280 were unchanged, 386 untraded and 41 others were suspended.

Volume rose to 1.415 billion shares, worth RM2.08 billion, from 1.347 billion shares, valued at RM1.976 billion, registered on Friday.

FBMKLCI 1,498 Key Support to Watch,

Historical Trend Favor Recovery Post CNY



Monthly Candlesticks

 After forming a double-top at 1,576 followed by sharp dip to 1,505 in January, the KLCI should move into base building mode to reinforce support which would anchor the subsequent longer-term uptrend. Key support where the index should bottom out is at 1,498, taken from three different Fibonacci Retracement (FR) points.

This important support must hold to prevent a deeper correction towards 1,450, which we deem will be remote. The index performance in February has been positive in 15 of the past 21 years, gaining an average 3.7%, while 2 weeks post Chinese New Year the benchmark averaged 5% gain in the past 19 years.

On the monthly chart, an extended wave (3) rally could sustain through 2011 to a base case upside target of 1,813, assuming the prior wave 3 rally (from 548 low of April 2001 to 1,525 peak of January 2008) equals the current up-wave from 836 low, that is (1,525 - 548 = 977 + 836 = 1,813).

HAPPY TRADING

GONG XI FA CAI

FKLI 1500 Psychological Support Under Threat

FKLI Traders Be Wary Of Spot Month In Premiums

Some Traders Here May Have Heeded My Warning

But Outsiders Are Not So Fortunate

They Have No Guardian Angel .... hehehe!!!

FKLI Recommendations

SELL INTO STRENGTH / RESISTANCE

WALL STREET >>> Bleak Earnings, Egyptian Unrest Spark 166-Point Dow Drop

Dow Sank On The Nile Weighted By Economic Data

Fears over unrest in Egypt sent U.S. stocks reeling Friday to their biggest one-day decline in months and put an end to the market’s eight-week win streak, as investors sought safety while oil prices surged.

Stocks were hammered lower today, with the major market indexes swallowing steep losses in the face of lackluster corporate earnings, discouraging economic data, and troubling political developments in the Middle East. Setting the bearish tone early, heavy hitters such as Ford Motor (F), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon.com (AMZN) all took a post-earnings drubbing, as traders found fault with each firm's quarterly report. Meanwhile, the latestThomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index pointed to rising skepticism in January, while the Commerce Department estimated that fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose by a weaker-than-forecast 3.2%.

As if these downbeat data points weren't enough to spook the bulls, increasingly unpopular Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak today deployed his military and declared a country-wide curfew in an attempt to curtail four straight days of protests and riots. Despite the objections of the U.S., the Egyptian government has now taken steps to shut down mobile service, Internet access, and subways as it attempts to cripple activists' ability to organize. As political tension in the Middle East rose from a simmer to a boil, oil and gold futures emerged as the day's big winners -- while the major market indexes beat a hasty retreat into the red.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,823.70) ended the day on a hefty deficit of 166.1 points, or 1.4%, as only two of its 30 components closed higher. Microsoft and Home Depot (HD) set the tone for the 28 declining blue chips, while both DuPont (DD) and Procter & Gamble (PG) managed to end fractionally higher. Today's steep sell-off left the Dow beneath its 10-day moving average for the first time since Jan. 10, but the blue chip barometer remains north of its 20-day trendline.

For the week, the Dow dipped 0.4%, unceremoniously ending its eight-week winning streak.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,276.34) settled for a loss of 23.2 points, or 1.8%, and suffered a daily close beneath its 10-day and 20-day moving averages for the first time since Nov. 30. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,686.89) gave up 68.4 points, or 2.5%, after finding an intraday floor near 2,680. The SPX shed 0.5% this week, while the COMP lost 0.1%.
OIL RISES 3.4%.

Oil Rises 4.3% On Egyptian Tensions
Crude price were catapulted higher today by the churning conflict in Egypt, despite the fact that the country ranks just 21st among oil-producing nations. Analysts are concerned that the political unrest may spread to neighboring oil-rich countries, such as Algeria, potentially hampering global supplies. Further raising the stakes on the perceived supply threat, there's also some uncertainty about the impact on two major energy transportation arteries running through Egypt -- the Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline. By the close, crude oil for March delivery added $3.70, or 4.3%, to finish at $89.34 per barrel. This marked the contract's largest daily jump since last May, bringing its weekly gain to 0.3%.

U HAD BEEN WARNED (hehehe!)

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年01月28日 / FBMKLCI 28/01/2911

综合指数 2011年 01月 28日

如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数微跌5.07点或0.33%，综指以1521.89点闭市，综指再度跌破了1525.49点的费氏线，这使到1525.49点成为综指当前的阻力水平，支持水平则落在1513.34点的费氏线。

如图所示好，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度为7%，这显示综指下跌的速度持续的缓和下来，不过布林频带并未收窄，所以综指并未出现回弹上扬的走势。无论如何，布林中频带成为综指接下来的阻力线，综指是必须上扬突破此阻力线，综指才有望摆脱下跌的走势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的总成交量进一步减少4.5%，所以成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示市场的交投量减少至稍微淡静的格局，这也是因为在综指下调了整4.5%后，投资者开始谨慎投资，选择静观其变所致。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）精确的在30%的水平回软，所以指标始终未能上扬突破30%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势仍然处于下跌的格局中，直到指标成功的上扬突破30%的水平为止。

总的来说，综指开始步入淡静的格局，有开始出现巩固的迹象，不过布林频带并未开始收窄来确认综指是否出现横摆巩固。无论如何，由于综指始终低于布林中频带以及31天加权移动平均线（EMA），所以仍然综指回弹的走势只能算是纯技术反弹，直到综指能突破这两道动态阻力线为止。

FBM KLCI 28 January 2011

As indicated by A, the KLCI fell 5.07 points or 0.33%, to close at 1521.89 points. The KLCI is now below the 1525.49 and therefore, 1525.49 is the immediate resistance while the support is at 1513.34.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 7%, and still the expansion rate is gradually reduced, and this implies that the Bollinger Bands could be contracting soon, thus a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI. However, as the KLCI is still below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is on the negative side.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 4.5%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. Again, this shows that the market is quiet as investors are staying away from the market, a head of the festive holiday.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic tested 30%, but it failed to break above 30%. Therefore, the short term bearish signal for the KLCI remains intact, and this suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still weak.

In conclusion, as the market is getting quieter, the KLCI also showing signs of a consolidation, but the Bollinger Bands has not started to contract, and therefore, it has not formed the consolidation signal. Nevertheless, technical outlook for the KLCI remains on the negative side as the KLCI is still below the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance.

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年01月26日 / FBMKLCI 26/01/2011

综合指数 2011年 01月 26日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数继续下滑，一度更下跌至1505.36点，随后综指出现回弹，收窄跌幅，综指按日下滑6.43点，以1520点闭市。由于综指跌破了1525.49%的50%费氏支持线，所以1525.49点转过来成为综指当前的阻力水平，支持水平则是1513.34点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开28%，而综指依然维持在布林中频带以下，所以综指继续下跌。不过由于布林频带打开的幅度开始减少，这显示综指下跌的速度亦有缓和下来的迹象。接下来若布林频带打开的幅度继续减低，综指将有望出现技术调整，使到综指避开进一步的下跌。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的总成交量减少27.23%，这使到成交量跌破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示投资者开始对后市有顾虑，选择场外观望。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）回弹，不过指标仍然低于30%，这显示综指的短期依然属于跌势中，换句话说，接下来若随机指标上扬突破30%，综指有望结束短期跌势而开始进入巩固中。

综指目前仍然低于布林中频带以及31天加权移动平均线（EMA），所以综指基本上属于下跌的趋势中，惟综指必须形成较低的顶（Lower High），综指才能确认长期的走势。总的来说，综指的短期走势依然趋软，至于综指长期走势则有待综指进一步的演变才能确认。

FBM KLCI 26 Janyary 2011
As indicated by A, the KLCI had a sharp loss in the early trade, with its daily low reaching 1505.36, but it gradually covered most of its loss, and close at 1520 points, losing 6.43 points. Immediate resistance for the KLCI is at 1525.49 while the new support is at 1513.34 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands expanded 28%, with the KLCI remains below the Bollinger Middle Band. This suggests that the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still on the negative side. If the Bollinger Bands should begin to contract, the KLCI is likely to stop falling and consolidate.

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 27.23%, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that investors are being cautious and prefer to stay on the sidelines as the market sentiment for the short term is affected by the sharp retreat of the KLCI.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded slightly, but remains below 30%, in the short term bearish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still weak, until the Stochastic could successfully break above 30%.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for the KLCI is now negative as the KLCI is below the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA. The KLCI has not formed a lower-high, thus it has not confirmed a downtrend formation.

HAPPY TRADING