Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年 08月 05日

综合指数 2011年 08月 05
由于再次受到道指暴跌的影响，富时综合指数再度跳空下跌16.95点开市，随后综指跌势汹涌，一度损失37.52点。无论如何，综指在接近1507.64点的费氏线获得扶持而回弹，惟综指在1528.75点的费氏线遇阻，所以1528.75点成为综指当前的阻力水平，支持水平则是1507.64点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开57%，由于综指一直都处于布林中频带以下，这显示综指出现暴跌的走势。无论如何，由于综指跌破了布林下频带，所以布林中频带发出拉回效应（Pull Back Effect），使到综指出现技术回弹，收窄综指全天的跌幅。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量在综指大跌的当儿反而增加53.28%，远远的高于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示虽然有众多的投资者惊慌抛售，不过同时亦有投资者选择趁低吸购，进行短线投机。无论如何，以技术而言，在综指下跌时，若成交量高扯显示卖压高，加剧综指的跌势。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续的维持在30%以下，这显示综指短期走势仍然处于下跌的格局中，直到随机指标成功上扬突破30%为止。

除了布林中频带，综指目前亦低于14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA），最重要的是综指跌破了200天的移动平均线（MA），综指有步入长期跌势的风险。换句话说，接下来若综指未能回到200天MA以上，综指的长期走势将看低一线。

祝你好运

Worst Sell-Off Since Late 2008; Dow Plunge 512.76 Points

NIGHTMARE ON WALL STREET
Major Indexes are all in the red for 2011
The VIX {Fear Index) jumped to a new high
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) may have halted its losing streak on Wednesday, but the bears were back with a vengeance today. Ahead of tomorrow's highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report, Wall Street was none too impressed with the weekly jobless data from the Labor Department. The discouraging stats sparked an ominous note ahead of the July jobs report, and buyers hit the exits en masse as the session progressed.

By the time the bell mercifully sounded, the DJIA found itself more than 500 points south of breakeven, marking its worst single-session drop since Dec. 1, 2008. On the flip side, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX - 31.66) -- or the Street's "fear barometer" -- skyrocketed more than 35% to tag a new 52-week high, marking its heftiest daily percentage gain since early 2007.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,383.68) steepened its slide as the closing bell approached, surrendering 512.76 points, or 4.3%, by the bell. In fact, all of the Dow's 30 blue chips ended in the red, as not even soon-to-split Kraft Foods (KFT) could eke out a win. Blazing the path lower was Alcoa (AA), which suffered a 9.3% plunge, while McDonald's (MCD) emerged as the least scathed, dropping just 1.5%.

In similar fashion, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,200.07) snowballed 60.3 points, or 4.8%, but found a late-session foothold atop the 1,200 level. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,556.39) cascaded 136.7 points, or 5.1%, to end at a new year-to-date nadir.

HAPPY TRADING

Technical Analysis : 综合指数 2011年 08月 04日

综合指数 2011年 08月 04日

在动荡的美国股市稍微尘埃落定后，富时综合指数出现技术回弹，惟综指在回补了周三的缺口后面对1552.36点的费氏阻力线（参考箭头A），综指随后回软，按日只微扬1.79点或0.12%，综指当前的支持水平是1540点，阻力则是1552点及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）。

如图所示，综指目前仍然处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，这表示综指的走势仍然趋软。与此同时，综指亦低于14、21、31天的EMA，这同样的显示综指正处于弱势中。以技术而言，若综指继续在EMA遇阻，那综指将持续的形成较低的顶（Lower Highs），这是综指下跌的讯号，导致综指的后市继续看跌。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微减少0.29%，继续的维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上的水平，这显示马股交投活跃，有投资者趁技术回弹离场，同时亦有投资者趁低吸购。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）上扬接近30%的水平，所以综指短期走势有望出现技术反弹，不过若要综指形成上扬的趋势，随机指标的上扬突破70%的水平。

总的来说，综指目前的走势仍然处于转弱的格局中，以技术而言，若综指继续的低于布林中频带以及EMA以下，综指的后市将看低一线。换句话说，综指继续上扬突破这两道动态阻力线，综指才有望摆脱下跌的走势。

祝你好运

After 8 Curve Balls, DJIA Dodges Longest Dip Since '78

SPX, COMP Back in the Black for 2011 after late-day buying spree
U.S. stocks spent time on both sides of the breakeven line today, as Wall Street absorbed a double dose of diverging economic data. Most notably, the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) kept the major market indexes in the red most of the day, after the data showed an unexpected slowdown in service-sector growth last month. However, payroll processor ADP may have been the bulls' saving grace, reporting a bigger-than-anticipated uptick in private-sector jobs in July. With the recent barrage of bleak data still in the forefront of investors' minds, the ADP figures offered a slim ray of hope ahead of Friday's highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report, and helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) avoid its worst losing streak since Jimmy Carter was in the White House.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,896.44) fell as low as the 11,700 level in early trading, but eventually clawed its way to a gain of 29.8 points, or 0.3%. All but nine of the Dow's 30 blue chips edged higher, with Coca-Cola (KO) blazing the trail with a 2% lead. Meanwhile, Caterpillar (CAT) paced the bearish minority, giving up 0.9% by the close.

In similar fashion, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,260.34) tagged an intraday nadir of 1,234.56 before bouncing back, settling with a gain of 6.3 points, or 0.5%. As a result, the broad-market barometer is now up 0.2% for the calendar year, after falling to a year-to-date loss in Tuesday's session. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,693.07) fared the best of the three, advancing 23.8 points, or 0.9%. At its session low, the tech-rich COMP was in danger of erasing its own year-to-date surplus, which now sits at 1.5%.

HAPPY TRADING

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